NPP may retain hold; UDP improves its performance

How did the Congress lose ground in five years? The biggest blow to the party has been dealt not by the incumbent parties, but an offshoot of the Congress, which is competing with it for the principal opposition party in the national scene: the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC).

The incumbent National People’s Party (NPP) is likely to return in government in Meghalaya as the single-largest party, with a bigger seat tally than in 2018 to boot. This means that the power balance in the ruling coalition will continue to rest with the NPP. The upshot of this election is, therefore, a shift in the power balance in the opposition camp, with substantial losses for the Congress.

Supporters of National People's Party (NPP) celebrate Meghalaya chief minister Conrad Sangma's victory in the state assembly elections in South Tura constituency on Thursday. (ANI)

The NPP has won 26 of the 60 assembly constituencies (ACs) in the state, six more than in 2018. Its former allies tried to assert themselves in this election. The alliance broke up before the election and the United Democratic Party (UDP) contested 45 ACs compared to 36 in 2018; and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 59 compared to 46 in 2018. The former has managed to increase its tally, but is still a distant second, having won just 11 ACs. The BJP has won two ACs, the same as in 2018. This means that for the power balance in the ruling coalition will continue to rest with the NPP, the main ruling party. That the alliance will regroup is very likely (Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP’s main troubleshooter in the region has already indicated that it will)

The outcome for the main opposition party in Meghalaya, the Congress, has however shifted dramatically since 2018. Of the three north-eastern states which went to polls this election cycle, Meghalaya is the only one where the Congress had not completely lost ground in 2018. While it won no assembly constituency (AC) in Tripura and Nagaland even in 2018, it was the single largest party in Meghalaya. The 21 ACs the Congress won in 2018 may not be its biggest tally in the state, but it was in line with its historical performance. It has not managed to do even that in 2023. Its tally of five ACs is its lowest ever. Its last single digit tally in the state was in 1972, when it won nine ACs.

How did the Congress lose ground in five years? The biggest blow to the party has been dealt not by the incumbent parties, but an offshoot of the Congress, which is competing with it for the principal opposition party in the national scene: the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). 12 Congress legislators, including former chief minister Mukul Sangma, left the Congress to join the TMC in 2021. In this election, both the TMC and the Congress won five ACs each.