Cases per week dip for first time in four weeks

For the first time in over a month, the number of new Covid-19 cases per week decreased, with the district recording 25,860 new cases between May 3 and 9, lower than the 27,358 new cases recorded over the previous week, between April 26 and May 2

For the first time in over a month, the number of new Covid-19 cases per week decreased, with the district recording 25,860 new cases between May 3 and 9, lower than the 27,358 new cases recorded over the previous week, between April 26 and May 2.

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Since April 4, there has been a continuous increase in the number of cases per week, with cases increasing by 2% around March-end to around 27% in early May (see box). The last time cases per week dipped was on April 4, when 1,098 cases were recorded between March 29 and April 4, lower than the 1,589 cases recorded between March 21 and 28, according to the health department data.

Officials attributed the dip in cases per week to the implementation of a lockdown in Gurugram. On May 1 and 2, Gurugram was among the nine worst-affected districts in the state, due to which the Haryana government initially enforced a weekend lockdown in the nine districts, following which a week-long lockdown was enforced on May 3 across the state.

“A combination of lockdown by the Haryana government and the efforts of the district administration and various government bodies in the city are likely to have been a major contributor to this drop in Covid-19 growth along with the support of residents (who are) opting to stay indoors. While this drop is encouraging, we know that the Covid-19 situation is still not completely under control, and continuous efforts are being executed to limits its spread and prevent people from contracting it,” said Dr Yash Garg, deputy commissioner.

According to the data, since April 4-11, the weekly percentage increase in cases has consistently remained higher than the preceding week. Between April 26 and May 2, the city saw an increase of 26.48% in cases compared to the preceding week. But this week, between May 3 and May 9, the increase in cases was 19.79%.

Data from the daily health bulletin of the district administration also lends support to this recent downward trend.

On April 29, the district recorded its highest single-day spike in cases, at 5,042 new cases, but since then, the district recorded more than 4,000 cases in a single day on only four more instances. On Sunday, the city recorded 2,842 cases, the lowest single-day spike in cases since April 20, when the city recorded 2,344 cases.

Although the spike in cases has taken a dip, various studies and experts have pegged the second wave of Covid-19 to peak in mid-May or next month.

As per both a State Bank of India (SBI) research report and the three-member national Covid-19 supermodel committee, formed by the central government to make projections regarding the spread of the pandemic and follow its trajectory, the second wave is expected to peak in mid-May. However, a report by CLSA, a foreign capital market firm, pegs the spike in June.