The battleground of 80 assembly seats

Shiv Sena and NCP, two political parties in Maharashtra, are facing internal splits. Both party heads are rebuilding their parties and targeting rebel MLAs in upcoming elections. There is speculation about a potential change in the chief minister position. Additionally, several daughters of established politicians are entering politics and being groomed for future roles. The inclusion of the NCP in the government is seen as a relief by some state administrators.

Mumbai There are many similarities between the splits in Shiv Sena last year and in Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) last week. The reaction of the heads of the two parties are similar as well. Both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar decided not to hold back those that wished to exit, and affirmed to rebuild their parties.

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In their fightback, both have decided to take the battle to the constituencies of the “traitor” MLAs. Thackeray has been identifying candidates in the constituencies of 40 MLAs who ditched him – such as Advay Hirey for Malegaon, Snehal Jagtap in Mahad and Sanjay Kadam in Khed. According to Pawar camp insiders, the veteran politician is also starting a similar exercise now, with a motive to defeat the rebel MLAs.

On Saturday, he began with Yeola, the constituency of his three-decade long close aide Chhagan Bhujbal. He even apologised to the people of Yeola and said he would rectify the mistake and would give a better candidate now. He has also planned a rally in Ambegaon, the constituency of Dilip Walse-Patil, once his protégé who is now with Ajit Pawar. Most of these seats are in Nashik to Kolhapur belt where the NCP chief has a following among the people. More importantly, these constituencies voted against the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in 2019, barely six months after BJP’s landslide victory in Lok Sabha polls. Pawar faction hopes to take back many of these seats. With the Ajit faction claiming that they have 41 MLAs, these seats would be on the radar of the NCP chief.

With Thackeray too targeting 40 rebel MLAs, there will be at least 80 assembly constituencies where the state is likely to see a fierce battle between the “loyalists” and the “traitors” and may settle the issue of which faction would claim the support of the people.

Will he break the jinx?

Notices issued by Speaker Rahul Narwekar to 53 Shiv Sena MLAs to initiate the process on disqualification petitions filed by rival Sena faction has fuelled speculations whether chief minister Eknath Shinde would be replaced by one of his two deputy chief ministers. It became such an issue that state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule had to clarify that Shinde would remain CM till 2024 elections. It has also led to netas talking about a sort of jinx in Maharashtra politics: All those ambitious deputy chief ministers have never become chief ministers. None of the deputy CMs right from the first one to occupy the post Nashikrao Tirpude to Ramrao Adik, Gopinath Munde, Chhagan Bhujbal, R R Patil, Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil and Ajit Pawar went on to become chief minister. Devendra Fadnavis is a different case since he was CM first and took up the job of deputy CM later. Among them, Ajit Pawar has occupied office of deputy CM five times in three different governments. Can he break the jinx now?

The daughters’ brigade

While Supriya Sule is in focus following the split in NCP, some more daughters of established politicians are making their entry in politics. They are learning the ropes from their fathers and being groomed for the role.

Senior Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat’s daughter Jayshree has become politically active for past couple of years. The buzz is that she may contest from Sangamner, the seat represented by her father for a consecutive eighth term. Purva, daughter of minister Dilip Walse-Patil is also active and has been part of various initiatives of Y B Chavan Center. For quite some time, there is talk that her father--who is with Ajit camp now--has been readying her to take the baton forward.

Shivani, daughter of Congress leader Vijay Wadettiwar, is general secretary of youth wing of Maharashtra Congress and has strong presence on social media. She is also quite active in her father’s constituency.

Gayatri Shingane, daughter of former NCP minister Rajendra Shingne is also being described as future MLA in his constituency in Buldhana district. Encouraged by her father, Gayatri is active in the constituency.

Meanwhile, among the established daughters, it is not only Supriya Sule who is facing trouble. BJP leader late Gopinath Munde’s daughter Pankaja faces challenge as her cousin Dhananjay has now become a minister from the Ajit camp and her Parli constituency could go to him in seat-sharing of the ruling parties. Pankaja who lost the last election to Dhananjay is wondering what to do next by taking a two-month sabbatical.

Some respite?

Many in the state administration are happy with the inclusion of Ajit-led NCP in the government—for an altogether different and non-political reason. Mantralaya officers were fed up dealing with Shinde’s ministers, most of whom were “aggressive” while dealing with the administration. A few officers had even complained to chief secretary and deputy chief minister Fadnavis. With nine NCP ministers about to head as many or more departments and more importantly, BJP no more replying on Shinde-led Sena for majority, the bureaucrats think they will be under less pressure from the CM’s men now. NCP ministers inducted now were in Congress-NCP governments between 1999 and 2014 and know how the relations between ministers and administration work, they say. “Things will be better at least for some of us,” remarked a senior IAS officer.