‘Thackeray may win more seats but could lose traditional bastion Konkan’

Legal fight favored Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction, but exit polls suggest Uddhav Thackeray may win Lok Sabha. Konkan loss could impact Thackeray's future

Mumbai : Although the legal fight to determine the “real” Shiv Sena after the split in the party in June 2022 went in favour of chief minister Eknath Shinde’s faction, the Lok Sabha results could favour the faction led by Uddhav Thackeray if recent exit polls are to be believed. However, according to psephologists, Thackeray could lose his party’s traditional bastion, Konkan, to Shinde and the BJP.

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray at a public meeting. (HT FILE PHOTO/Bhushan Koyande)

This is likely to affect Thackeray’s political prospects in the assembly elections and municipal corporation elections, including the BMC, which, in turn, will affect his long-term politics and his political bargaining power in local body elections, say political observers. CM Shinde, despite possibly getting less seats than Thackeray, is likely to retain his position in the Mahayuti alliance due to his utility in the forthcoming assembly and municipal corporation elections.

After Mumbai, the Konkan region has been considered a Shiv Sena bastion for decades. According to experts, Thackeray will win more seats than Shinde due to support in Mumbai and Marathwada with some seats in North Maharashtra and western Vidarbha. But for the Shiv Sena, perception matters the most, and the general perception is that the Konkan region belongs to Thackeray. If the party loses seats here, it will be a big setback for him.

For Shinde on the other hand, this will be a big opportunity. According to experts, Shinde will be seen as a trusted ally by the BJP with a capacity for local political management. He could attract more local leaders from the Thackeray faction who, as of now, are sitting on the fence. This will also add to his bargaining power in the local body elections, including the BMC where already over 50 former corporators have joined him.

“Although CM Shinde is likely to get less seats than Thackeray in the Lok Sabha elections, he could shake the political bastion of Thackeray along with the BJP, and this will help him win the war of perception regarding who the original Shiv Sena belongs to,” said Abhay Kulkarni.

Sankalp Srivastav, director of SIA India, feels that Uddhav Thackeray will win around 12 to 14 Lok Sabha seats – twice that of CM Shinde, who is likely to take 6 to 7 seats. But he feels that Thackeray will face a setback in Shiv Sena's traditional stronghold of Kokan. “Thackeray used the undercurrent among farmers against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government and campaigned extensively in the state. We see him performing well in Marathwada and other regions. But in the party bastion Kokan, he is likely to see a setback,” he said. “The ruling Mahayuti alliance used the resources which comes with power very well and worked hard to get people out to vote. Thackeray camp was seen as weak on these fronts.”

As per a survey of polling organisation ‘The Strelema’, the Thackeray camp will win around 10 seats and CM Shinde will win around seven seats, but Thackeray will lose all five seats his party contested in the Konkan region. “Due to the perception about Thackeray’s control on Mumbai and Konkan, he used to enjoy a lot of importance in Maharashtra politics,” said Sushilkumar Shinde, founder director of ‘The Strelema’. “But after these Lok Sabha elections, he may lose his dominance in Mumbai and Konkan. This will affect the future politics in the region as well as in Maharashtra in the long term.”

Sheetal Mhatre, spokesperson of the Shiv Sena led by Shinde claimed that after the Lok Sabha results, many fence-sitters would join CM Shinde. “This election will give a big shock to the Thackeray faction,” she said. “People will see the traditional supporters from Konkan now standing with CM Shinde and the BJP.”

Bhaskar Jadhav, Shiv Sena (UBT) MLA from Guhagar, said the reports about the party’s defeat in Konkan were ridiculous. “Konkan still supports Uddhav Thackeray,” he said. “Narayan Rane had utilised all resources to win but he is going to lose from Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg by 1 lakh votes. In Raigad too, we have a good chance of winning. MP Rajan Vichare in Thane will retain his seat.”