Bihar bypoll results: Message for both NDA, Grand Alliance to set house in order

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Grand Alliance shared one seat each in the by-elections for two seats in Bihar with the BJP retaining Gopalganj and the RJD retaining Mokama seats

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) shared one seat each in the by-elections for two seats in Bihar, with the results going on the expected lines, but with a message for both the sides that none could take things for granted.

The margin of victories in the Bihar bypolls shows that the contest between the Grand Alliance (GA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could be stiff in the 2024 Parliamentary elections and 2025 Assembly elections. (PTI)

The BJP retained Gopalganj, which had several candidates in the fray, with Kusum Devi, wife of late Subhash Singh, winning the seat. Singh had represented the seat uninterruptedly since 2005. After his death, the party fielded his wife who maintained the winning streak, despite the RJD’s tough fight.

The RJD retained its Mokama seat in a direct fight with a comfortable margin. The BJP contested the seat for the first time and despite putting in a lot of efforts, it could not break the bastion of incarcerated Anand Singh, who won the seat four times in the past. This time his wife Neelam Devi contested after Anant Singh was disqualified due to his conviction and 10-year jail term in a case involving the recovery of an AK-47 from his house.

But, that did not make any difference to his clout in the area, as Neelam Devi romped home comfortably, beating the BJP’s Sonam Devi, wife of local leader Nalini Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh, who has been at loggerheads with fellow Bhumihar strongman Anant Singh over the years and joined the BJP just a day prior to nomination. It was seen as a fight between two strongmen, but Anant Singh proved that in Mokama he has no match - whether he is in jail or outside.

However, the margin of victories in the two by-elections shows that the contest between the Grand Alliance (GA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could be stiff in the 2024 Parliamentary elections and 2025 Assembly elections. BJP fought Mokama for the first time and had to borrow a candidate matching Anant Singh’s muscle power at the last moment. It could find solace in reducing the victory margin in Anant Singh’s stronghold by over half due to significant support from the people, though it did not prove enough. Last time, Anant Singh won by over 35,000 votes, but this time his wife won by over 16,700 votes.

In Gopalganj, the BJP ‘s Subhash Singh had won the seat by over 36,500 votes in 2020 over his nearest rival, the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) Anirudh Prasad alias Sadhu Yadav, brother in law of Lalu Prasad Yadav. The RJD did not contest the seat and the GA’s Congress candidate had finished third. This time, the RJD gave the BJP the scare, as its candidate Mohan Prasad Gupta came close to breaking the BJP’s winning streak in Gopalganj, the native place of both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi. Ultimately, the BJP scraped through, with Kusum Devi winning by a slender margin of around 1,800 votes.

The RJD’s Gupta, a Vaishya candidate fielded to erode the traditional BJP votes, gave a stiff fight till the end, despite Sadhu Yadav’s wife Indira Yadav and All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) candidate playing the spoiler for him. Together, the two gathered over 20,000 votes.The AIMIM fought there for the first time.

Former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies, DM Diwakar said the by-poll results had a message for both the NDA and the GA. “The GA should have its house in order in people’s perception. With Nitish Kumar not campaigning for whatever reasons, it sent a message of internal strife. Anant Singh winning in Mokama is not something big for the RJD to trumpet, as the winning margin has dropped there. A win in Gopalganj, the native district of Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi, would have meant something big for Tejashwi Prasad Yadav. Thanks to his clout, Anant Singh has been winning from Mokama with or without the support of any party. Similarly, the BJP, too, does not have much to write home about in Gopalganj due to a narrow victory with vote splitters apparently playing their part,” he added.

Diwakar said that Bihar politics being complex, both the alliances should not read much into the bypoll results in the context of 2024 General Elections or 2025 state elections. “That is far away right now and a lot of water may flow down the Ganga by then. It remains to be seen how the GA takes the result of Gopalganj. It is just a consolation for both sides. If GA needs to do well, it will have to present the cohesion, which unfortunately is missing. Similarly, to take on a united GA, with both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad on one side, the BJP knows the arduous journey ahead. But in politics, new players and new circumstances don’t allow anyone to sit on past laurels. As former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi recently said, two plus two is not always four in politics,” he added.

Social analyst NK Coudhary said the voters have shown the mirror to both the alliances that the fight could get stiffer in the months to come. “The results give a message that political parties should not take voters for granted. The message is louder to the RJD in Gopalganj. With Nitish Kumar not campaigning, losing Gopalganj is a message to Tejashwi not to hurry things up for power transition. It is a message that the JD-U is not a spent up force and that Nitish Kumar on either side could make the difference and that power transition will happen on his terms. The BJP knows that taking on a united GA will never be easy, so it will try to do what it did in Gopalganj - make it a multi-cornered contest,” he added.