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In bypoll result, a ‘mini-referendum’ on Rawat government
If the BJP wins the bypoll, then it will be read as a kind of people’s clear affirmation of the policies being pursued by chief minister Rawat after he took over on March 18 last year.
The results of the bypoll to the Tharali (reserved) constituency will be crucial for the ruling BJP as it will be a “mini-referendum” on the year-old Trivendra Singh Rawat-state government’s performance, say analysts.
The assembly seat fell vacant after the saffron party’s Dalit face, Magan Lal Shah, died on February 25. The BJP and the Congress candidates filed their nomination papers on Thursday setting the pitch for a bipolar battle.
The BJP, banking on the sympathy factor, has fielded Shah’s widow and district panchayat chairperson Muni Devi whereas the Congress has fielded former MLA Jeet Ram. Ram had lost Tharali to Shah in the 2017 assembly polls. Analysts feel that the bypoll results, to be announced on May 31, would indicate which way the political wind is blowing in the mountain state.
If the BJP wins the bypoll, then it will be read as a kind of people’s clear affirmation of the policies being pursued by chief minister Rawat after he took over on March 18 last year.
“If BJP loses, it will be a clear indicator that the government should either focus on implementing its policies, or, some drastic mid-course correction is required in its hill centric policies,” Prof L M Joshi of Kumaon University said.
Prof M M Semwal of HNB Garhwal (Central) University agreed. “If BJP loses, then it will obviously reflect the undercurrent of people’s general disenchantment with the development policies the CM has pursued in the past a little over a year”.
Most analysts agree that a win give a much-needed boost to the Congress, which suffered a rout in 2017. “It will give the Opposition a much needed ground to allege that the development policies pursued by the ruling BJP stand rejected by the people,” Prof Y P Sundriyal of HNB Garhwal (Central) Unviersity said. “Besides, Congress will also project the BJP’s defeat as the failure of the policies pursued by the Centre.” The opposition would “vociferously raise that aspect because the BJP’s development-centric campaign for the 2017 polls was spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”
Semwal said that if the BJP loses, Congress would project it as the countdown for the ruling party’s defeat in the 2019 general elections. In Uttarakhand, BJP represents all the five parliamentary constituencies.
However, analysts were near unanimous that it would not be easy for the Congress to snatch the seat from the BJP. “Congress continues to be a divided house despite the drubbing it suffered in the last elections,” said Semwal. “Besides, the people of Tharali would vote the ruling party candidate hoping that the latter would help boost development in the constituency.”
He said to ensure that its votes were not divided, the BJP had placated its two senior leaders — state party secretary Balbir Guniyal and district panchayat member Guddu Lal Shah. Both the leaders were said to be in the race for the party ticket. “Both these leaders will campaign in favour of our official candidate,” said BJP’s state media in-charge Devendra Bhashin in an official note.
