The United States (US)-India strategic partnership is rooted in the Indo-Pacific region. Nonetheless, developments in Europe, such as the war in Ukraine, have implications for US-India cooperation. The Ukraine conflict could distract the US, diverting its attention to Europe, and impeding its efforts to build Indian strategic capacity. Differing responses to the war can also create tensions between the two countries, as the US seeks to punish Russia, and India remains neutral. India and the US must reconcile their approaches to strategic developments in Europe. Failure to do so will not undo their strategic partnership but could create unnecessary obstacles to cooperation.
India and the US must reconcile their approaches to strategic developments in Europe.
The US-India strategic partnership—driven by the need to offset rising Chinese power and ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains free and open—is rooted firmly in Asia. To be sure, the US, as a global power, has interests elsewhere around the world. This is particularly true of Europe, which was the US’s focus during the Cold War, and remains an area of central strategic concern. But India, as a South Asian regional power, is necessarily more concerned with its own neighbourhood, and the Indo-Pacific is the locus of the Chinese threat, which both countries recognise as their most pressing strategic challenge. This is especially the case for India, as a revisionist China actively seeks to redraw the Sino-Indian border. Therefore, the US-India partnership is, in the first instance, regional.
This seems to suggest that, despite Europe’s importance, US-India relations should be relatively insulated from events there, including even a major development like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukraine war is of neither India nor the US’s making, and neither country is directly involved in the fighting. The conflict is occurring far from the two countries’ shared locus of concern in the Indo-Pacific.
Reality, however, is more complicated as the Ukraine conflict has potentially significant implications for the Indo-Pacific and US-India cooperation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at root, denies the principle of sovereignty that underlies the nation-state system, ensuring territorial integrity and protecting weak states from aggression. This has implications well beyond Europe. If Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, China may be emboldened similarly to vindicate its revisionist claims against states in the Indo-Pacific region. This would create significant challenges for the US and India, which seek to maintain the regional status quo.
In addition, the war in Ukraine could impede US-India strategic cooperation. To address the crisis, the US might direct attention and resources away from the Indo-Pacific towards Europe. Commentators have pointed out that such a turn could undermine its position in Asia and have especially harmful consequences for the defence of Taiwan. It would also damage US-India strategic efforts. The two countries’ partnership requires the US to remain actively engaged in the Indo-Pacific, as India cannot meet the challenge of rising Chinese power alone. If the US is distracted by conflict in Europe, the two countries will be less able to work together to build Indian strategic capacity, offset rising Chinese power, and keep the Indo-Pacific free and open.
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