Five years ago when Union home minister Amit Shah rose in Parliament to speak on the morning of August 5, few had any clue about the tectonic changes his speech would bring. Over the course of the next few hours, the Union government stripped the contentious region of its special status by effectively abrogating Article 370, revoked its statehood, and bifurcated it into two Union territories. Internet and phone services were suspended in the Valley and curfew-like conditions were imposed for months even as activists and Opposition members approached the Supreme Court, which finally upheld the move last year.
The Clock Tower at Lal Chowk in Srinagar illuminated with the Tricolour on August 14, 2023. )Waseem Andrabi /HT Archive)
Today, as Jammu and Kashmir stands on the precipice of the first assembly elections in a decade — the top court mandated deadline is September 30 — the response in the region is decidedly mixed. The Union government believes it streamlined local politics, weeded out extremists and tamped down on terrorism and stone pelting, protected reservations and expanded employment, all the while boosting tourism and building infrastructure. The Opposition and civil society members argue that human rights were trampled, terrorism didn’t die down but took new forms, and that tourism numbers hide ground sentiment that remains sharply opposed to the abrogation of Article 370 and stripping of statehood. As the region completes five years after the landmark changes and looks forward to local polls, mere months after record-breaking turnouts in the parliamentary elections, HT takes stock of the area’s politics and security.
Politics
Hasnain Masoodi was sitting across from Shah in the Opposition benches on August 5, 2019, and remembered his protests in the House drowned under the cheer from the treasury benches as Article 370 was abrogated, one of the core goals of the Bharatiya Janata Party and its ideological fount, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. The former Anantnag MP and senior National Conference leader said the region’s people remain sceptical about the political scenario.
“It’s unfortunate, they promised return of statehood five years ago and are still singing the same old tune,” said Masoodi. “PM Modi promised elections again after taking charge in June, but now people and politicians are sceptical. If we are getting to elect a chief minister here, why is the lieutenant governor being given more powers?” he asked.
Over the last five years, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed elections to local bodies and panchayats. The three-tier panchayat elections were completed with the first District Development Council (DDC) elections in 2020 in which all major parties, including the NC, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and People’s Conference, participated under the banner of the Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD). The PAGD won 110 of the 280 seats across 20 districts of Jammu and Kashmir, while the BJP bagged 75 seats. The recent Lok Sabha elections also saw a robust campaign that resulted in a record voter turnout of 58%, the highest in 35 years in J&K. The BJP won the two Jammu seats, while NC won two of the three Valley seats with the third being won by a former dissident who is in jail on terror funding charges.
The BJP points to the reduction in terror strikes in Kashmir to argue that the public mindset has changed. “Tourism has taken the place of terrorism. The Tricolour is unfurled with pride in the Valley,” said former deputy chief minister Kavinder Gupta.
Apni Party founder Altaf Bukhari, who was the first to reach out to New Delhi after the revocation of Article 370, said there was some dejection in the Valley. “We want our democratic rights,” Bukhari said.
PDP leader Waheed ur Rehman Parra said the abrogation of Article 370 was still a major issue among the people. “Today, Kashmir is silent and Jammu is seeing a surge in violence… the losses are evident,” he said, referring to the recent surge in terror strikes in Jammu.
Security
On August 5, 2019, security officials on the ground feared “beyond expectation” retaliation through mass protests, stone pelting and terror attacks across Kashmir, said a police officer who was dealing with law and order in J&K then. Some protests rocked the Valley in the initial weeks, but the security agencies were largely able to gain control of the streets. Even as activists and locals alleged rights violations, the government touted its success in clamping down on protests — from 1999 incidents of stone pelting and protests in J&K in 2019 to less than 10 in 2023, and from 255 militancy related incidents in 2019 to 94 in 2023.
A senior officer who was in charge of law and order in 2019 said the forces worked without any pressure. “Officers got a free hand which led them to restore peace. Besides, actions taken against handlers, overground workers and those trying to provoke people worked,” he said. The number of local young people joining militancy has dipped from 200 in 2019 to just 20 to 25 last year.
But Jammu’s security has emerged as a new concern. The Jammu division, which was almost free from militancy over the past two decades, has seen a spike in attacks, a clear indication that Pakistan-sponsored terror has shifted focus from the Valley to the mountainous forests of Jammu.
This year, so far, 16 defence personnel and 34 terrorists have died in separate gunfights in Jammu and Kashmir. Fourteen civilians also lost their lives.
“A bunch of highly trained militants are currently operating in the Jammu region. They know how to take advantage of topography and are using encrypted messages to communicate. It is clear that Pakistan has shifted the terror theatre to Jammu,” said a top security official who did not want to be named.
The attack on a bus full of pilgrims in Reasi in June underlined the threats that have now forced concern at the highest levels.
While the 2021 ceasefire between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control still holds and intrusion through its traditional routes in Kashmir has come down, Jammu and the International border (IB ) is turning out to be a new infiltration route. Officials believe that 50 to 70 militants, mostly foreigners, have managed to sneak into Jammu in the last 24 months.
They admit that three to five groups have entered Jammu in recent months while quadcopters and drones are being used to drop weapons and drugs. “The tactics of militants and their handlers have changed. Now the focus has shifted to Jammu region, especially Poonch, Rajouri and Doda,” said a senior officer deployed in the region. “The pattern of attacks in Poonch, Udhampur, Rajouri and Doda is an indication that the militants have latest weapons such as US-made M4 carbines and AK-47s in their arsenal,” he added.
Tourism
In Srinagar, Rauf Tramboo is overjoyed. The president of the Travel Agents Association of Kashmir points to the rising tourist numbers as the defining change in the Valley since 2019. A record 21.1 million visitors arrived in the UT in 2023, up from 18.8 million in 2022, and 11.3 million in 2021. In 2018, this stood at 16.8 million. The number of tourists in Kashmir has also tripled, he pointed out.
“For three decades, Kashmir was in disarray due to militancy and protests. Tourism was neglected but after the revocation of Article 370, peace returned to the Valley and so have the tourists. Today, most of our tourist destinations are crowded,” he said.
“Interest in the sector is growing. More people are investing in hotels, guest houses, transport and houseboats. Restaurants and handicraft showrooms are coming up,” he added.
Awaiting elections
“Earlier, local leaders used to meet us but we don’t have an elected government for the past six years…the term of the district development councils will be over soon,” said Vinkal Sharma, an unemployed 30-year-old engineering graduate.
Former deputy chief minister Kavinder Gupta admitted there was anger among the people of Jammu, particularly young people.“People need representatives. We demand early assembly elections,” he said, but argued that the revocation of Article 370 had unleashed development. “IIMs, IITs, AIIMS, IIMAs, medical colleges, ring roads, the train to Kashmir, flyovers and record turnout of voters all happened due to the revocation of Article 370.”
A principal correspondent, Ravi Krishnan Khajuria is the bureau chief at Jammu. He covers politics, defence, crime, health and civic issues for Jammu city.
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