Central team projects sharp spike in Maharashtra in next 30 days, state says no need to worry

Central team’s projection for Mumbai, Pune and the rest of the states has been downplayed by the state government which is banking on the current doubling rate and mortality rate data.

Even as 431 new Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra on Wednesday kept the average number of new cases above 400 for the last four days, the government claimed the hotspots in the state had reduced to five from 14 a few days ago.

Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray has also held discussions with the central team of experts.(ANI Photo)

It also claimed that the mortality rate had reduced and the doubling-rate had improved to 7.01 days from 3.1 days earlier this month.

A central team that visited Mumbai and Pune has, however, projected a sharp spike in positive cases over the next two to three weeks and advised the Maharashtra government to make preparations anticipating a worse-case scenario. It also anticipated a massive surge of positive cases in Mumbai between April 30 and May 15.

State health minister Rajesh Tope downplayed the concerns and said the projections made by the central team were based on the rate of increase which would not be applicable now.

“There is panic among people about a spike between April 30 and May 15. It is a mathematical model. Surely there is a science behind it, but certain things have been assumed in this, such as the doubling rate, which is considered at 3.5 (for the projection) and it is kept static. We have taken a lot of preventive measures. We are carrying out surveillance, tests, etc,” Tope said.

He said that a dramatic spike could only happen if the state government wasn’t taking any measures.

In last four days, 2001 positive cases have been added to the state tally which reached 5649. 58 patients have died during this period, taking the toll to 269. Mumbai tops the chart for new Covid-19 patients and casualties with 3683 cases and 161 deaths. Of the 431 new cases and 18 deaths on Wednesday, 232 cases and 10 deaths are from Mumbai. Two each of the remaining 8 deaths are from Aurangbad and Pune, and one each from Kalyan-Dombivali, Solapur, Jalgaon and Malegaon.

Five of the deceased were above 60 years of age, while 12 were in the 40-60 age group and one was below 40 years. 12 of these patients had high-risk co-morbidities like hypertension, diabetes, asthma and heart ailments.

The mortality rate in the state dropped to 4.80 % on April 21, much below 7.21% on April 11. The doubling rate of positive patients has stayed at 7.01 days compared to 3.5 days a few days ago.

During the presentation before chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and chief secretary Ajoy Mehta, the five-member Inter Minister Central Team (IMCT) reportedly projected an exponential rise in positive cases in Mumbai, with the figure touching 42,604 by April 30 and 6.56 lakh by May 15.

The officials from the state health department, however, said that the figures do not reflect the present trend. “Those are the old figures estimated assuming the doubling rate of Covid-19 cases to be two days. But at the present, the cases are neither rising at that rate, nor are we conducting testing to reach that number by May 15. Even the percentage of the positive cases vis-à-vis the number of tests conducted, ranges between 5-8%, and with that rate, the projection appears to be unrealistic,” said the official.

Tope said that the doubling rate was now at 7.01 days, and could go up even further. He added that the mortality rate has also improved in the state. “Earlier, it was 7%, now it has come under 5%, and with efforts, it will reduce further.” The minister added that the hotspots in Maharashtra have reduced from 14 to five--Mumbai, Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, Nagpur Nashik.

State health minister Rajesh Tope refuted the notion that the Central government has sent the team to Maharashtra fearing the lockdown measures were not being followed properly in the state and claimed that the state was faring well in terms of the mortality rate and the doubling rate.

Tope said, “Nobody has said that the lockdown norms have not been followed [in Maharashtra]… In an epidemic, the situation is always serious. The cluster containment strategy is being properly implemented. If there is any lacuna, we are immediately identifying and resolving it… There are two important things-- doubling rate and mortality rate. The doubling rate has reduced. Earlier cases doubled in three days, then in five days, now it is happening in seven days. It is will increase further. The death rate is also improving. Earlier it was over 7%, now it is under 5%. The number of cases is increasing and would increase further in the coming days. But they are not growing exponentially.”

A senior state government official said that the Central teams which visited Worli-Koliwada, Dharavi and other slum pockets in Andheri east area, has sought data of the people living there. It has also sought to know the number of tests conducted in these areas. An official added that the team has advised to shift people to quarantine facilities to curb the spread of the viral infection in the densely populated areas. “In Mumbai, around 75,000 people have to be taken from their homes and shifted into institutional quarantine facilities. We have spaces including schools and grounds where this can be erected. Institutional quarantine will aggressively start in Mumbai from tomorrow (Thursday),” Tope said.

Health minister said the state has reviewed its preparedness plan. “As per the preparedness plan, we are checking the availability of hospital beds, oxygen beds, PPE kits, etc. We are considering the worst possibility and the BMC is preparing for it. I have instructed BMC to increase testing facilities and quarantine facilities as well,” he said.

The minister also hinted that the lockdown could be extended beyond May 3 in areas with a high number of cases.

After 67 patients were reported to have recovered fully on Wednesday, the total number of the patients to get discharged from the hospitals so far has reached 789. 1,09, 072 people are home quarantined in the state and 8051 are under institutional quarantine.

State authorities have conducted 90,223 tests at government and private labs so far, of which 83,979 tested negative. State has 465 containment zones with 6,798 health teams with a combined strength of 25.61 lakh people.

During an interaction with chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, the IMCT has asked the state government to prepare for the worst-case scenario, said an official.

“They have directed the government machinery to strictly monitor the containment zones and start an aggressive outreach to avoid the spread of the virus further. They have pressed for contact-tracing and aggressive testing in the hotspots. The government has also been told to increase the number of health teams to trace more high and low-risk contacts,” said an official from the state government on the condition of anonymity. The official also said that the central team has asked the state government to take steps to avoid crowding on the roads by the Muslim community for prayers during the month of Ramazan.

CM Thackeray apprised the team about the initiative taken by the government to contain the spread in the hotspots, especially in the slums of Mumbai and Pune. The team was told that the civic body in Mumbai has been reaching out without waiting for the people to report the symptoms.

“We have increased the number of tests and it has resulted in the rise of positive cases in the state. We expect the ICMR nod for the rapid testing at the earliest. The centre should also respond positively to the demand raised for the supply of PPE kits, N-95 mask and other equipments,” he said.

State government fears extreme reaction from more than 5.7 lakh migrants living in 4618 camps across the state if the lockdown is extended again after May 3.

“We do not want to repeat the Bandra migrant crisis after the conclusion of the second phase of lockdown. We have been getting harsh reactions from these migrants who have been put up in the camps for more than four weeks with every facility at their disposal. The state has already spent around Rs 90 crore and huge machinery is engaged for the arrangements. At a few camps, the migrants have boycotted food demanding to return to their respective states. Chief minister Uddhav Thackeray is keen on sending them back at the earliest,” said an official from the state government.

Meanwhile, reacting to the allegations of former Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis that the BMC is suppressing Covid-19 related death count in Mumbai, Tope said the civic body has assured him that the deaths referred to by Fadnavis were not related to coronavirus.

“The patients were old and had comorbidities. The ICMR guidelines say that if a patient arrives in a critical or a serious condition, he or she must be stabilised first, and then swab should be taken. In this case, the patients died during stabilising. The ICMR guidelines also do not say that swab samples should be taken from such patients who died,” he said stressing the deaths referred to by Fadnavis were non-Covid deaths.

Fadnavis in a letter to chief minister Uddhav Thackeray on Tuesday said that patients labelled as ‘suspected Covid’ during admission to hospitals in Mumbai were not being tested for the disease after death. He said at least 44 bodies of ‘suspected Covid’ patients have been released from the civic-run BYL Nair Hospital — a dedicated Covid-19 facility now — without conducting the coronavirus test. There are several such instances from other hospitals too, said Fadnavis, who tweeted details of the letter he’s sent to chief minister Uddhav Thackeray.

“We are not hiding any information; there is no reason. The directives of the government of India and the ICMR protocol are being followed completely,” Tope added.

The minister added that there is a “question mark” over the rapid test or antibody test after the Centre directed the state government not to use the Chinese. “There is still a question whether to do it (rapid test) at all. In the Chinese kits, the IgM and IgG bands are not visible properly. We will act as per the corrective instructions of the Centre.”