Riddle of 16: What did Rahul Gandhi hint at when he said ‘my god, how crazy’? Southern party's tally may hold answer

Rahul Gandhi's ‘16’ riddle: A mathematical fact he could be referring to is that the BJP does not have majority on its own since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi on Friday claimed the number 16 holds heavy meaning in PM Narendra Modi's plans to bring in delimitation — an increase and change in Lok Sabha seats — by bundling it with an amendment to the 33% women's quota law passed in 2023.

The Congress leader hit out at the government for what he claimed was “hiding behind India's women”. (Sansad TV)

Rahul said that, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was speaking in the Lok Sabha on his government's plan to this effect, “I was sitting here and watching. He had low energy. He was not able to engage."

He said he then noticed the date was April 16. Harping on the number, the Congress MP said, “Clearly, trying to pass this bill (constitutional amendment) was a mistake. Everybody knew."

He added, "I saw on my phone the date, the 16th, of April, and I was like, ‘My god, how crazy!’ That's the number. Sixteen. The answer to the riddle is in the number 16. Now if anybody understands what I am saying, please, send me a message.”

Modi was not present when Rahul spoke.

The Congress MP also said the answer to “your problems” — pointing towards the treasury benches — is “in the number 16".

One mathematical fact that he could be referring to is that the BJP does not have majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha on its own since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP has 240 MPs, and its key allies include the JD(U) of Nitish Kumar from Bihar with 12 MPs, plus Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP's 16 from the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi was purportedly indicating that the TDP, being a party from South India — a region that fears loss of seat share in an expanded Lok Sabha — may not be onboard with the Modi government on its plans.

He did not say that, though, when later asked about the “riddle of 16” outside the House too.

For the record, Andhra minister and newly appointed TDP working president Nara Lokesh, who is Naidu's son, had on Thursday thanked PM Modi for "assuring the nation on behalf of the NDA that no injustice would be done to any state through the delimitation exercise".

TDP's relationship with BJP/NDA

The Telugu Desam Party, founded by NT Rama Rao, has had a turbulent, on-and-off relationship with the BJP and NDA. It was a founding member of NDA in 1998 and supported Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government. Chandrababu Naidu was even NDA's convener during that era.

However, in 2004, TDP parted ways with the NDA ahead of elections, damaging the alliance's prospects in Andhra Pradesh.

The relationship soured further after Andhra Pradesh's bifurcation to form Telangana in 2014. The TDP initially joined the NDA when the Modi era began, but quit in 2018, protesting the alleged denial of special status and financial packages to Andhra Pradesh. They reconciled ahead of the 2024 elections, and the TDP won 16 Lok Sabha seats, making it indispensable to Modi's coalition government.

What the math says

Vote on the women's quota amendment and related bills was scheduled for Friday evening. The BJP-led NDA anyway does not have the required numbers in Parliament to get the amendment passed on its own.

Amending the Constitution requires a special majority in both houses of Parliament — a majority of the total membership (more than 50%), and a two-thirds majority of members present and voting.

So, if all 540 members, that are there in the House currently, are present and voting, the two-thirds majority mark would be 360.

While the NDA has the support of 293 members in the Lok Sabha, which is 54% of the house, the opposition bloc has 233, of which the Congress has 98.

Seven MPs are independents, and four belong to the Andhra opposition party YSRCP of Jagan Mohan Reddy; plus one each to the AIMIM from Telangana and the SAD from Punjab. The AIMIM and the SAD have already opposed the bill.

Even if 90 MPs abstain, the two-thirds figure comes to 300, still not the NDA number. That means, for the bills to get approval from the Lok Sabha, at least two main opposition parties have to abstain. That would have to be either the Samajwadi Party (37 MPs) of UP, or the Trinamool Congress of Bengal (28 MPs), or the DMK (22 MPs) of Tamil Nadu. They have said they won't.

In case the bills do not get Lok Sabha nod, they will not be taken up in the Rajya Sabha. In the Upper House, too, the NDA has less than 60% of the House.

Sources told PTI that several BJP MPs privately know they do not have the numbers to get the key bills passed.

The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill is to tweak the women's quota law. The Delimitation Bill and the Union Territories Laws (Amendment) Bill are meant to to implement the amended women's quota more on the basis of earlier data, and not wait for the next census.

What's the South's fear?

The Congress and several parties from South India, a region that includes Andhra, have said the states could end up losing seats, even though they were successful in controlling their population as per a national policy of family planning.

The Congress has underlined that PM Modi's “guarantee” and home minister Amit Shah's claim, that there will be a flat 50% increase in Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 816, has no value if not coded in law. The proportionate share for states will stay the same, Shah has said.

But this is not written in the bills, analysts have noted too.

The delimitation, done by a commission appointed by the central government, can reduce the share of the southern states from 24% to 20% in the Lok Sabha, if it's done as per the 2011 Census now or later, DMK from Tamil Nadu has pointed out for instance.

'Panic reaction' with eye on polls

Rahul Gandhi pointedly said the manner in which the Modi government wants to implement the quota for women — law passed already three years, which linked it to the next census — could be seen as an attempt to “change India's electoral map”.

He called it "panic reaction", for the PM wants to "show that he is pro-women".

The government move comes just before voting in the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. And women have been a key factor in elections lately with BJP or NDA regimes giving out doles just days ahead of elections. In Bengal, for instance, the BJP is facing a woman chief minister, Mamata Banerjee of the TMC, who has called it a party of outsiders.

The government, however, has argued that the delimitation or expansion of the Lok Sabha is needed so that the women's quota can come in earlier.