Political headwinds for BRS as it prepares to take on Congress, BJP in Telangana

KCR would like to return to power for the third consecutive term but there is large-scale discontent among the people against the government and MLAs

A tough political battle between the three major parties – the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -- is likely in Telangana for the upcoming assembly polls.

The Election Commission of India. (File photo)

The BRS, headed by chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, would like to score an electoral hat-trick of wins while it is a do-or-die battle for the Congress; for the BJP, it is a fresh opportunity to conquer the southern state after failing to retain its hold in the neighbouring Karnataka in May this year.

For the BRS, which has won two consecutive electoral battles in 2014 and 2018 after the formation of the new state, the upcoming election will be a challenge. There is no precedence of a chief minister – whether it was during the combined Andhra Pradesh regime or after the bifurcation – winning three consecutive terms.

KCR would like to return to power for the third consecutive term but knows it will be easier said than done; as a BRS leader put it, asking not to be named, internal surveys have indicated that there is large-scale discontent among the people against the government and MLAs.

In the 2014 assembly elections, the BRS (then Telangana Rashtra Samithi or TRS) won only 63 out of 119 assembly seats in the state, but between 2014 and 2018, KCR systematically decimated the Congress despite the fact that the latter had granted statehood to Telangana.

Out of 21 Congress MLAs, as many as eight MLAs defected to the BRS. Similarly, 12 out of 15 Telugu Desam Party (TDP) MLAs, three YSR Congress party MLAs and two Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MLAs, besides an independent MLA, also defected to the BRS. The BJP, despite having five MLAs in the assembly, did not emerge as a major force to reckon with in the next five years.

Between 2014 and 2018, KCR strengthened his position and popularity by launching various welfare schemes like Rythu Bandhu, Rythu Bima and Kalyan Lakshmi besides launching developmental programmes like Mission Kakatiya (restoration of defunct irrigation tanks) and Mission Bhagiratha (bringing piped drinking water to every doorstep) and taking up major irrigation projects like Kaleshwaram on Godavari river.

Even as the opposition parties struggled because of leadership crisis and lack of strength and resources, the BRS president sprang a surprise on them by dissolving the state assembly eight months in advance and went in for early elections in December in 2018.

The Congress, plagued with internal wrangling and lack of proper leadership, committed a political blunder by joining hands with the TDP, the CPI and a smaller outfit like Telangana Jana Samithi to form an alliance.

The campaign by TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu came as a blessing in disguise for KCR, who again exploited the Telangana statehood sentiment. As a result, the BRS won the elections for a second successive term by bagging 88 assembly seats, while the Congress ended up with 19 assembly seats. The BJP, which lost deposits in as many as 103 seats, could win just one assembly seat.

That wasn’t the end: 12 of the 19 Congress MLAs also defected to the BRS while the party lost one more seat in the by-elections to Huzurnagar seat and another MLA – Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy, who defected to the BJP – also lost to the BRS. With two TDP legislators defecting to the BRS as well, the strength of the ruling party rose to 104.

However, the electoral situation seems to have changed in the past five years. Within months of the December 2018 assembly elections, the Congress and the BJP made rapid electoral recovery by winning three and four Lok Sabha seats in the May 2019 parliament elections.

The BJP also emerged as a strong force in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections by winning 48 out of 150 divisions, apart from two assembly seats in the by-elections to Dubbak and Huzurabad seats. The party, under the leadership of Bandi Sanjay, expanded its influence at the grassroots.

On the other hand, the Congress, too, grew as a powerful party under the leadership of A Revanth Reddy. Reddy, along with other party seniors like Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka travelled across the state to strengthen the party’s network.

Though KCR continued with his earlier welfare schemes and introduced new schemes like Dalit Bandhu and KCR kits etc, corruption allegations rocked the party at the constituency level, leading to a lot of discontent among the people, a discontent that was readily exploited by the Congress and the BJP.

According to reports, majority of BRS’ sitting MLAs are facing strong anti-incumbency factors in their respective constituencies. Despite the political headwinds, KCR, did not drop sitting MLAs and retained over than 90% of them in the list of candidates announced in September.

The outcome of the recent assembly elections in Karnataka has given a much-needed boost to the Telangana Congress. Several disgruntled senior leaders from the BRS and the BJP defected to the Congress in the last few months, as a result of which the party could overcome the leadership crisis in several districts.

Supported by political strategist Sunil Kanugolu of Mindshare Analytics, the Congress came out with six guarantees for the people of Telangana for the upcoming elections.

As far as the BJP is concerned, the party seems to be going through problems of its own. The party, which until early this year, was seen as the front runner for the upcoming polls plunged into a crisis with the change of guard in the state – Sanjay being replaced by Union minister G Kishan Reddy.

Several leaders, who were supposed to join the BJP from the Congress and the BRS, dropped their plans to do so. There is sudden lull in the BJP camp and the party has not been able to organise any mass outreach programmes.

Despite the fact that the top leadership of the party, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have been regularly visiting Telangana and addressing meetings, the party has not been able to regain its strength.

Among the other parties, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), is as usual confined to the old city of Hyderabad. Though the party has announced that it would field candidates in more than 40 constituencies in Telangana in the coming assembly elections, it is expected to retain its seven traditional seats in Hyderabad.