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Tamil Nadu: Cracks appear within AIADMK-BJP alliance after civic poll rout
AIADMK’s assessment is that it is a waste continuing to ally with the PMK and detrimental to be associated with the BJP – both allies contested alone in the polls in a temporary breakaway to test their strength.
After being routed in the urban local body polls, senior AIADMK leaders say they must consider not continuing alliance with the BJP and take a stand against the BJP-led central government, thereby going back to coalition stance of J Jayalalithaa before her death.
The AIADMK is yet to have a meeting to discuss their loss in the local polls. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Jayalalithaa contested alone with the catchy challenger slogan Modi or Lady. The AIADMK won 39 out of the 40 seats in that general election. “That slogan galloped the votes for us,” said a veteran AIADMK leader who didn’t wish to be named. “We need to take a stand like that again. We have to sail with the people’s sentiments.”
Facing challenge from the DMK-led secular progressive alliance which has won every election since it was formed in 2019, AIADMK’s assessment is that it is a waste continuing to ally with the PMK and detrimental to be associated with the BJP – both allies contested alone in the polls in a temporary breakaway to test their strength.
“The PMK couldn’t win in their traditional vote banks. Though we contested without the BJP, the minorities didn’t trust us because some of our leaders said that we will be together for the 2024 polls,” said the leader quoted above. The PMK garnered a 1.5% vote share and BJP- 5.4% while AIADMK registered 25%.
Even if the trio had contested together like they did in the 2021 assembly elections, adding up their vote share is much less than what the AIADMK had achieved last year. “The BJP will certainly ask for more seats given their performance and if we agree to that, we are surely going to lose further.”
As the BJP, which won 308 seats more than they did in the 2011 local body polls, the party has got itself a bargaining clout. And they will bring their claim to the table that they are the third largest party now which is being disputed by the Congress which won more seats-592 but has a lower vote share of 3.3% because they contested in fewer seats.
So then comes a question if expelled AIADMK interim general secretary VK Sasikala will be reinducted in the party. Some within the party are of the opinion that if they join hands, they will be able to collect Sasikala’s caste-based vote bank along with her nephew TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam which has been eating into the AIADMK’s vote share particularly in Tamil Nadu’s southern districts.
But the party’s high command except for O Panneerselvam, who has been in favour of Sasikala’s return, continues to be firmly not to allow her and her family in the party. “We are tempted with the Sasikala option,” said another senior AIADMK leader. “The Sasikala chapter has neared its end. She is a spent force and even Dhinakaran seems to have deserted her now. And more the AMMK cadre are joining us again.”
He too feels the BJP is a burden on the Dravidian party. “Even if they take one step forward, they go back four steps by supporting NEP, NEET. That will never work in Tamil Nadu.”
Even though Panneerselvam and former chief minister and party joint coordinator Edappadi Palaniswami have solidified their dual leadership to keep Sasikala out, the cold war continues between the duo. Both of the leaders met ex-minister D Jayakumar in jail (for assaulting a DMK worker during the civic polls) independently without informing each other. “That’s how strained their relationship is,” said one of the leaders quoted above. These internal tussles continue to plague the 50-year-old party.
Besides that, the AIADMK’s bastion in the western region has also been breached by the DMK in the polls–its weakest link–informing that a shift is taking place. The DMK bettered its performance in Coimbatore, Tirupur, Erode including in Palaniswami’s hometown in Salem compared to the assembly elections.
AIADMK leaders said district secretaries were in charge of candidate selection which resulted in groupsim. “During Amma’s (Jayalalithaa) time, district secretaries would give their suggestion of three names and she had a committee to select the best,” said a leader. “And this time the high command called up the district secretariat and said that they will not give any money to fight the polls.”
Political experts say besides the cadre, there was a team, Modi and RSS, who are working behind the scenes building a base with specific caste-based groups to emerge as a counter force to the AIADMK if in case the Dravidian party drops them.
“If the religious agenda is used against the BJP, they will neutralise it with a caste agenda with the promise that the Centre will protect their communities,” says political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy. Ahead of last year’s assembly election Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that they have accepted the long-standing demand of the seven sects of Devedra Kullalars to be brought under one umbrella. “Falling apart will be a minus for both parties.”
