Maharashtra past 1.6 million cases, daily count dips further

Maharashtra on Monday went past 1,600,000 Covid-19 cases with its lowest single-day spike since July 7 (104 days) as 5,984 new infections took the tally to 1,601,365,

Maharashtra on Monday went past 1,600,000 Covid-19 cases with its lowest single-day spike since July 7 (104 days) as 5,984 new infections took the tally to 1,601,365, which includes 173,759 active cases. On July 7, the state had recorded 5,134 cases. The state also reported 125 more fatalities, its lowest one-day death count since June 22, pushing the toll to 42,240

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Meanwhile, Mumbai registered its lowest single-day spike in 48 days with 1,234 fresh infections, taking its count to 243,169, while reporting 43 deaths to push the toll to 9,819. On September 1, Mumbai had reported 1,142 cases. The active caseload in the city went below 20,000 and stood at 19,906. So far, 212,979 patients have recovered and discharged. The recovery rate of Mumbai stood at 87%, while the case fatality rate (CFR) touched 4.03%. Since the first week of September, daily cases have been on the rise in Mumbai with over 2,000 cases on most days of that month. However, in October, cases have been dipping on alternate days.

The state’s low case count on Monday could also be attributed to a comparatively lower number of tests. In the previous 24 hours, 46,312 samples were tested, while the average number of daily tests carried out in the month so far is 75,236. State health officials attribute the lower numbers to fewer tests during the weekend, data of which is reflected on Mondays and Tuesdays.

The state touched the grim mark of 1,600,000 Covid-19 cases 224 days after it recorded its first on March 9.

However, key parameters, including the doubling rate and positivity rate are showing signs that the spread of coronavirus is slowing down in the state. State health department officials, however, warn that there could be a rise in new cases by mid-November.

The doubling rate, which is a crucial parameter to show the growth of the outbreak, improved to 48 days in the state. It took 48 days for the state to double its tally from 800,000 to 1,600,000, which is 14 days more than what it took for the state to go from 400,000 to 800,000 Covid-19 cases. Maharashtra went past 800,000 cases on September 1, while it crossed the 400,000-mark on July 29.

Another important parameter, the positivity rate, is also seeing a dip compared to previous months. Positivity rate is the percentage of samples that have tested positive from the total samples tested. While Maharashtra’s overall positivity rate is 19.56%, the positivity rate in October so far is under 16% (15.57%). The positivity rate in September was 22.41%, 18.48% in August, 21.25% in July, 21.22% in June, 18.07% in May, 7.31% in April and 4.77% in March.

State surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate said the Covid-19 situation in the state is seeing a “decline”. He also added that active cases are declining at a faster rate than the new cases. Pointing out that the number of cases has declined by over 50% between September and October he said, “In the second week of September itself, we had nearly 1.53 lakh new cases, and now in the last week we had around 70,000 new cases. This is a reduction by 50% in new cases.”

When asked about the lower testing in October, Awate reasoned that with fewer positive cases, the immediate contacts of people, which form the major portion of new tests, have also reduced. “Close contacts of patients form the major component in daily tests. But with new cases reducing, the number of contacts declines; thereby the testing has reduced marginally. Take September second week for instance, where we had over 1.5 lakh cases. In that week, our daily testing was about 89,000. Now it is about 78,000-80,000. So the decline in testing is about 11%, while new cases is about 50%, ” he said.