Mumbai’s Covid-19 CFR at 4%, lower than August

As Mumbai crossed 10,000 Covid-19 deaths on Friday, the Covid-19 cumulative case fatality rate (CFR) now stands at 4%, which is considerably less than the city’s

As Mumbai crossed 10,000 Covid-19 deaths on Friday, the Covid-19 cumulative case fatality rate (CFR) now stands at 4%, which is considerably less than the city’s peak at 5.6% in July and August, but still more than in March and April (3.2% to 3.6%), the initial months of the pandemic outbreak. Experts say a drop in CFR is a good sign, but it needs to go below 0.5% or at least below 1%.

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Mumbai’s CFR is highest in the state and much above the state’s 2.63%. Officials from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) said the civic body is focusing on reducing CFR. The relatively lower cumulative

CFR in March and April has been attributed to non-reporting of many Covid deaths by hospitals in the first few months. Later in June, and July, BMC and the state government reconciled these death figures and added over 1,000 deaths to the cumulative toll, in various phases.

Dr Shashank Joshi, a senior member of the Maharashtra government’s task force set up to control CFR, said, “I have always been concerned about our CFR. We have to aim to get our case fatality rate below 0.5% and 1%.”

Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner incharge of BMC’s public health department, said, “We are closely monitoring fatalities. After launching Mission Save Lives, the death rate has come down, but we are doing
more.”

On June 30, BMC launched Mission Save Lives, a nine-point programme to curb fatality due to Covid-19 in the city.

Mumbai crossed 1,000 deaths on May 25, with a fatality rate of 3.2%. Mumbai’s deaths crossed the 2,000-mark on June 12, with a CFR of 3.6% and 5000 on July 8, with a CFR of 5.6%.

Dr Joshi said, “There was some non-reporting of deaths in the earlier months. [If we add those numbers now] the CFR will come up to 4% or 5% even for those months. I don’t think our mortality has changed much. It has remained more or less on the same plateau.”

Going by month-wise data of number of deaths after reconciled figures from June, CFR in March was around 9%, in April, May and June it was over 5%, and in July and August it was over 4%.

According to BMC data from October 9, given out in a presentation called ‘Raise 2020’, the civic body over time, reduced preventable deaths in Mumbai, by improvement in hospital availability, and clarity in patient treatment. Also, BMC observed that deaths in patients below 60 years of age also have reduced.

Dr Joshi said, “We need to aggressively destigmatise Covid. In Mumbai, people are treating themselves and going to doctors late which lead to high chances of death. The tests are not done on time. It is time that we seriously took care of Covid, especially in the vulnerable groups.”

According to BMC, the most prevalent co-morbidities in patients who have died due to Covid-19 are hypertension and diabetes. Dr Joshi said, “At least 15% of the city’s population has hypertension and 30% has diabetes.”