Mumbai sees lowest 1-day jump in cases since May 13

Maharashtra, the Indian state worst hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, on Tuesday reported its highest single-day jump in fatalities with 248 deaths, even as Mumbai,

Maharashtra, the Indian state worst hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, on Tuesday reported its highest single-day jump in fatalities with 248 deaths, even as Mumbai, the worst-hit Indian city, recorded 824 new cases — lowest one-day jump in 41 days. Mumbai had reported 800 cases on May 13.

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One of the reasons for Mumbai’s improvement is Dharavi, which was once the biggest hotspot in the city, but on Tuesday recorded only five cases — its lowest since April 10. The average daily new cases in one of Asia’s largest slums were 47 in May, which went down to 18 in June. Dharavi’s doubling rate has gone up to 102 days, highest in the city.

Of the state’s 248 deaths, 75 were reported in the last 48 hours, while the remaining were from the past few weeks. The state toll went up to 6,531 and the case fatality rate is 4.69%, according to the state data.

Keeping its trend of more than 3,000 cases per day for the past week, the state recorded 3,214 new infections, taking the tally to 139,010, with 62,833 active cases. Mumbai’s tally went up to 68,410 and the toll is 3,844 with the addition of 107 fatalities on Tuesday. There are 29,982 active cases.

Owing to the addition of 1,328 cases in a day as a result of reconciliation of data last Tuesday, the state toll jumped by 2,403 deaths in the past eight days. This resulted in the jump in the case fatality rate to 4.69% on Tuesday, from 3.79% on June 15.

The positivity rate in the state has risen multi-fold over the past few weeks. It was 27.45% on Monday, up from 22.49% a month ago on May 22 and 6.06% on April 22. The positivity rate in Mumbai, too, has been at par with the state rate. From 8.67% on April 21, the positivity rate has increased to 27.9% on May 21 and 27.5% on June 21.

Maharashtra has, so far, conducted 7.87 lakhs tests, including 2.92 lakh in Mumbai alone.

Dr Avinash Supe, former KEM dean and member of the expert committee appointed by the state to recommend steps to curb the spread said, “As per the ICMR guidelines, tests are being performed on the symptomatic cases and hence the rate naturally ought to be high. When the tests are done for all contacts, the positivity rate is low.”

When asked if the high positivity rate is an indication of community transmission, Dr Supe said, “It is a controversial subject, some epidemiologists say it’s already begun, some say no. The possibility is high, but it is a matter of research by scientists and experts,” He said that though the case fatality rate is high, it is still within limits and barring a few areas the situation in Mumbai is improving.

The positivity rate is the percentage of tests that turn out positive for coronavirus. The authorities said that since they have been testing only symptomatic patients, the rate is high. However, experts also pointed out that the high positivity rate also indicates that the state is only testing sick patients and not casting the net wide to know if the virus is spreading within communities.

Of the 248 fatalities reported on Tuesday, 65 were in Mumbai, 42 in Solapur, 18 in Nashik and 15 in Aurangabad.

605,141 people are currently home quarantined, while 26,572 are under institutional quarantine. State’s recovery rate, however, improved to 50,09% as 69,631 patients recovered till Tuesday.