India-US ties: Beyond fleeting expediencies
Bilateral ties between India and the US have a standalone and enduring logic of their own. The US bet on India is part of a long-term vision
As 2024 unfolds, the US and China appear to be dialling down on tensions. At the level of optics, China has lauded the Joe Biden-Xi Jinping Summit in San Francisco in November last year; The Global Times assessed that the “San Francisco vision” had “epochal significance”. At the substantive level, their bilateral dialogue has intensified with a spate of US government officials travelling to Beijing. Noteworthy is the resumption of dialogue between the two militaries in December 2023, which had been suspended by China after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Despite the fundamental and often irreconcilable differences that bedevil ties, both the US and China appear keen to maintain an even keel.
There are major distractions for both. The US has its hands full dealing with prolonged conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, apart from the upcoming presidential election. China, on the other hand, is grappling with an economic downturn and churn in the higher echelons of the leadership, including in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which together may be instrumental in infusing a degree of pragmatism into foreign policy.
Notwithstanding the strong US support for Ukraine and Israel, neither of the conflicts shows any sign of abating. In both geographies, achieving an end state in line with US objectives remains a chimaera. For Beijing, this provides a chance to get off its high horse of supplanting the US as the global hegemon and favour a more conciliatory relationship. Taking a cue from the US, allies such as Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have endeavoured to stabilise relations with China. Most recently, even as the US, Japan and the ROK held an “informal” trilateral summit during the APEC meeting in San Francisco in November last year, the foreign ministers of the ROK and Japan also met with their Chinese counterparts in Busan later that month.
Despite these developments, the Chinese challenge to the US is structural and long-term in nature. The US has awakened to the perils of over-dependence on China. The Chinese economic juggernaut has provided cheap goods to the US consumer to maintain the American lifestyle in the short-run but has hurt the US economy in the long-run by hollowing out several sectors of the US economy. Therefore, US policy towards China is increasingly imbued with a dose of realism. De-risking in trade and investments has emerged as a key policy priority. US exports to China in 2023 amounted to $135.8 billion and imports were $393.1 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $257.3 billion. That is considerably less than the trade deficit of $382.29 billion in 2022. This is indicative of a continuing effort on the part of the US to diversify.
Separately, any suggestion that improvement in Sino-US relations is detrimental to India’s ties with the US is without basis. India’s relations with the US are sui generis. The new US-India partnership in the economic, tech and military spheres is expected to further strengthen as the US increasingly regards India as an economic opportunity at a time when the Chinese economy appears to have peaked in several sectors. India is also regarded as a critical ballast in the regional security architecture in the Indo-Pacific. In an era of net-centric warfare that depends on advanced ISR capabilities, intelligence sharing and technological cooperation between strategic partners such as India and the US is critical. Clearly, a democratic India with a high economic growth rate, a credible military and resolute leadership acts as a fulcrum for stability in Asia.
A confident India is less likely to countenance Chinese unilateralism, as witnessed in recent years. Strengthened military capabilities and a rapidly rising economy complement a deeper strategic convergence between India and the US. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US in June last year led to a slew of agreements in the high-tech sector that will give a fillip to the partnership. Notably, in FY 2023, the US became India’s largest trading partner in goods, displacing China. In services, the US has long been India’s top partner.
The US has a lot riding on the future of its economic and strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. As part of its risk mitigation strategy and the compulsions of friend-shoring, the US will be inclined to further its trade and investment ties and technological cooperation with reliable partners such as India. Bilateral ties between India and the US have a standalone and enduring logic of their own. The US bet on India is part of a long-term vision, beyond fleeting expediency.
Sujan Chinoy, a former ambassador, is director general, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The views expressed are personal
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