In an unclear situation, it’s more important to raise the right questions than be certain of their answers. Here are 13 questions that explore the problem that India faces
When a situation is not clear, but you can sense the implications and dangers, it’s more important to raise the correct questions than be certain of their answers. I believe what the crisis in Ukraine means for India is one such situation. Here are 13 questions that explore the problem we face. They could help you understand why a crisis in Europe is a serious predicament for us.
Have we damaged our image by refusing to criticise the Russian invasion of a sovereign country? (AP)
One, on the one hand, India has historically close relations with Moscow and 60-70% of our defence equipment comes from Russia. On the other hand, in the last 20 years, India’s relationship with the United States (US) has transformed. We are members of Quad and share a common vision for the Indo-Pacific. So, when both want our clear-cut support for their stand on Ukraine, are we getting torn apart?
Two, let’s start with India’s response. We are proud of being the world’s biggest democracy and we stand for a rules-based international order. Have we, therefore, damaged our image by refusing to criticise the Russian invasion of a sovereign country and by abstaining from voting at the United Nations (UN) Security Council?
Three, while Russia has expressed appreciation of India’s stand at the UN, US President Joe Biden has publicly indicated there are unresolved differences with India. Clearly, this has introduced a strain in Indo-US relations. How worrying is that?
Four, let me go a step further. India is the only Quad country that has not sharply and publicly criticised Russia. So are there now serious differences of perception within Quad? Is it weaker and less united as a result?
Five, the problem for India could become more difficult depending on how the crisis in Ukraine might develop. Not only has Russia divided Ukraine by effectively taking over the Donbas region, but the popularly elected Volodymyr Zelensky government is likely to be toppled, and a pro-Russian puppet regime put in its place. Russia will expect Indian support and, difficult though that may be, while we have a very tense and unpredictable situation on our border with China, will we have to abstain again?
Six, does this mean the Chinese problem and India’s dependence on Russian military equipment have substantially tied our hands?
Seven, if India now continues to abstain and not criticise Russia, even after Ukraine has been “gobbled up”, what sort of relationship will we have left with America? For, instance, will we get a waiver under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for the S-400 missile system?
Eight, let’s look further down the road. Russia’s dependence on China, already undeniable, is likely to increase very significantly. Since most of the Russian military equipment we get is targeted against China or its close ally Pakistan, won’t Moscow be under pressure from Beijing to stop?
Nine, the tougher the sanctions the West imposes on Russia, the greater will be Russia’s dependence on Beijing and, therefore, the stronger the Chinese-Russian partnership. Could that lead to changes in Russia’s stand on the India-China problem and even, possibly, the India-Pakistan problem?
Ten, writing in The Tribune, former foreign secretary, Shyam Saran, went a step further: “The nightmare scenario for India would be if the US comes to the conclusion that it confronts a greater threat from Russia and that this justifies a strategic accommodation with China. In blunt terms, concede Chinese dominance in Asia while safeguarding its European flank.” How likely is this?
Eleven, if this nightmare happens, does it mean India will be on its own facing China, with a hostile Pakistan to our west and neither America nor Russia with us politically?
Twelve, there’s no doubt we’re walking a very difficult tightrope, but how long can we continue? If we have to come down on one side or the other, which should it be?
Thirteen, given India’s need for economic investment and technology, but also our commitment to democracy and a rules-based international order, and the fact the problem with China is not going away, is the US the better friend for the future?
Karan Thapar is the author of Devil’s Advocate: The Untold Story
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