G20 leaders face criticism at COP29 over fossil fuel stance
This is particularly critical because the G20 meeting in Brazil took place after Donald Trump won the US Presidential election
G20 leaders whose countries account for 80% of global emissions and 85% of the world’s GDP attracted flak on Tuesday from observers at the COP29 climate conference in Baku after their communique, “G20 Rio de Janerio Leaders’ Declaration”, failed to commit to transitioning away from fossil fuels.
This is particularly critical because the G20 meeting in Brazil took place after Donald Trump won the US Presidential election . Trump is a known climate-sceptic and his return is seen as a setback for climate negotiations. Experts suggest that the lack of emphasis on moving away from fossil fuels may have been a push from Saudi Arabia and Russia, both big oil and gas producers.
The draft G20 leaders communique focuses on the 2 degrees C goal (the upper limit of Paris Agreement) and does not mention “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, which was agreed upon in UAE at COP 28. It does however mention the need for scaling up public and private climate finance and investment for developing countries and a successful New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) outcome in Baku.
The communique may now give a momentum to talks in Baku and push towards an agreement on NCQG , basically a new target for annual climate financing .
“G20 Leaders have sent a clear message to their negotiators at COP29: do not leave Baku without a successful new finance goal. This is in every country’s clear interests, “ Simon Stiell, UN Climate Chief said in a statement.
Some experts took heart from the fact that the communique didn’t take a backward step.
“#G20 actually agreed on a text! Despite the tense geopolitical times, the G20 delivered a united result thanks to Lula’s resolve. On the back of the US elections, getting a communiqué that does not backslide on existing commitments was a big challenge,” Linda Kalcher, executive director, Strategic Perspectives.
“The real litmus test now for effective multilateralism on climate is bridging the divides to agree on a meaningful new climate finance goal...” Kalcher added.
But others expressed concern at the absence of a commitment to move away from fossil fuels, given that COP28 agreed on this.
“World leaders at the G20 Summit displayed a stark failure in leadership, neglecting to reaffirm their commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels—a critical pivot for global climate action. Their rehashed rhetoric offers no solace for the fraught COP29 negotiations, where we continue to see a deadlock on climate finance,” said Harjeet Singh, Climate Activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
WELCOMES OUTCOME FROM BAKU
While not providing an explicit statement on what they wish to see in the New Collective Quantified Goal that is to be agreed upon in Baku, the G20 Communique said: “We look forward to a successful New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) outcome in Baku. We pledge our support to the COP29 Presidency and commit to successful negotiations in Baku. We also pledge our support to the COP30 Presidency, in 2025.”
“The G20 has clearly said that multilateralism is key. In the background of Trump threatening to pull out of the Paris Agreement, Argentina pulling out of the COP29 negotiations, the G20 has sent a clear sign and have reiterated that this process is very important. There are some very obvious wins that NCQG, low cost finance are important. Another interesting thing in the G20 communique is the clarity over multilateral trade measures. There is a strong language which says there shouldn’t be a backdoor entry for unjustifiable and indefensible discriminatory trade practices. There is also something similar for deforestation; that there should be regulations which discriminate against forest-related trade. The emphasis on NDCs also indicates a growing political movement around it,” said Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow, CEEW.
The communique states that “noting that measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.” This is important considering that India, the Like Minded Developing Countries and Brazil, South Africa, India, and China have been demanding that unilateral trade measures such as EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism be discussed at COP29 as they “ discriminate against countries seeking to industrialise through export-led growth.”
The G20 reaffirms the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. But the there is no explicit statement of committing to limiting global warming to 1.5 degree C over pre-industrial levels.
The G20 communique underscores the need for increased international collaboration and support, including with a view to scaling up public and private climate finance and investment for developing countries, accelerating broadly accessible technological innovation, enhancing resilience and low-greenhouse-gas emissions pathways, and supporting ambitious green industrial planning and strategies. It reiterates the New Delhi Leaders Declaration recognition of the need for rapidly and substantially scaling up climate finance from billions to trillions from all sources.
PUTTING NUMBERS ON THE TABLE
Observers said they now expect developed countries to put some numbers on quantum of NCQG, the contributor base and structure on the table for further negotiation. Ministers have arrived in Baku. “It can be expected that EU may start by putting some numbers on the table. Some numbers being discussed are $ 200- 300 billion as the core goal which will then be boosted with finance from other sources including investments. How high the total goal totally depends on the contributor base. The contributor base determination is likely to be developed based on economic capabilities,” a negotiator said.
African ministers gathered in Baku said they demand an NCQG goal of at least $1.3 trillion . “It will help stop bleeding us dry from hazards of climate change. We are seeing a wipe out of countries for a crime we never committed to. We mean business,” a minister from the African group said on Tuesday.