Did authorities downplay Mexico ties in Nancy Guthrie case? Ex-lieutenant's shocking theory, ‘Great deal of effort…’

A retired lieutenant has said spoken out about the Nancy Guthrie case, noting that “if Mexico was suspected, that would make it a federal investigation.”

Dave Smith, a retired lieutenant with the Arizona Department of Public Safety and a law enforcement consultant, told Fox News Digital that authorities may have downplayed alleged Mexico ties in the Nancy Guthrie case to keep feds off it. This comes after FBI Director Kash Patel alleged that the FBI was “kept out of the investigation” for days.

FILE - An ever-growing collection of yellow flowers and notes sit at the home of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie, on March 6, 2026, in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rebecca Noble, File) (AP)

Smith noted that the man who was caught on surveillance footage from Nancy’s Nest doorbell camera appeared to be wearing his holstered pistol "Mexican carry" style.

"My first thought is always Mexico in a major crime, because it's a great haven, and it's hard for us to follow up on," Smith said. "But in this case, obviously there was somebody was taken with intent. And I think that that's why we need to wonder, perhaps, was she taken to Mexico?"

"My personal theory is, if Mexico was suspected, that would make it a federal investigation," Smith added. "There seemed to be a great deal of effort to keep the feds out of this case. And the best way to do it was to deny any possibility of interstate or international transport of the person's body or kidnapped."

Smith noted that Nancy’s neighborhood is just about 60 miles from the border town of Nogales.

"You cross that border, on the Arizona side, it's a small town, relatively small town," he said. "You cross that border, it's major urban area, 300,000 people."

Smith added that this could make it easier to blend in.

Alleged Mexico ties in the Nancy Guthrie case

A couple of notes about Nancy were sent to TMZ by a person who claimed that they saw her in Mexico. The first note was received on Monday morning, April 6, the same day Savannah Guthrie returned to the ‘Today’ show.

The person sent a second letter saying, "I Saw her alive with them in the state of Sonora Mexico."

Sonora, a large Mexican state, borders Arizona and parts of New Mexico.

In the first note, however, the sender said of Nancy that "she is dead."

Authorities were reportedly not convinced that the notes were legit.