The reminder from realpolitik

The recent bypoll results show entrenched local factors can prove as significant as emerging hyperlocal protests

The bypoll results for five assembly constituencies (AC) and one parliamentary constituency (PC) were released on a day Delhi was put under an unprecedented clampdown to prevent the October 10 protests. At a time when political coverage and commentary is being dominated by an extra-parliamentary drama, the bypoll results are a good reminder of how elections can differ from what seems immediately pressing and fascinating in politics. All six elections were won by the ruling party.

The sheer scale of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victory in Nandigram and Rejinagar ACs also underlines the fact that West Bengal has, once again, embraced the party-society model where the ruling party enjoys more than a fair advantage. (ANI)

In West Bengal, the results have only worsened the crisis for the previous incumbent Trinamool Congress which has already suffered a split after its loss. If the results are any indication, it might struggle to even retain the primary opposition party status in the state. The sheer scale of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victory in Nandigram and Rejinagar ACs also underlines the fact that West Bengal has, once again, embraced the party-society model where the ruling party enjoys more than a fair advantage.

In Tamil Nadu, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has won the two ACs which were vacated by the resignation of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) MLAs. So far, it seems to be the AIADMK and not the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) which is losing ground to the TVK since the May elections. But even this is going to be enough to give the TVK a decisive edge vis-à-vis the DMK. The assembly results were not a fluke is the key message.

Assam has continued with its trend of the Congress ceding further ground to the BJP. In Nagaon, the Congress could not even finish second in a PC it had won with 50% vote share in 2024. The Congress in Assam now risks losing even Muslim votes to the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a party the Congress had completely marginalised in the 2024 and even 2026 elections in the state.

Now, one can argue that incumbents, that too so close to their last victory, will have a natural advantage in bypolls and one should not make too much of the results. The argument is perhaps fair. But the results should serve as a cautionary note to anybody who is in a haste to see the ongoing protests as a pre-ordained, decisive headwind for the BJP. In realpolitik, entrenched local factors might prove to be as significant as the emerging hyperlocal protests.