E-Paper
Climate change threatens India’s food supply, pushing up prices: Report
The paper consolidates existing evidence on climate and ecological risks facing Indian agriculture and recommends pathways towards an agroecological transition.
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Climate change is reducing crop yields, disrupting food supply chains, and pushing up food prices in India, with economic losses extending beyond farms to retailers and consumers, according to a new white paper by the research-based consulting initiative Climate Trends launched in New Delhi on Wednesday.
According to the report titled ‘From Risk to Resilience: Climate Change, Ecology and the Future of Indian Agriculture’, India's food systems are facing the combined impact of rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, extreme weather events and ecological degradation. These pressures are affecting agricultural production, food availability and affordability, while threatening rural livelihoods, it adds.
India's food systems bear the direct burden of climate change through "declining agricultural productivity, supply chain disruptions, disaster-related losses, price volatility, trade impacts, and rising food insecurity," the report says.
The paper consolidates existing evidence on climate and ecological risks facing Indian agriculture and recommends pathways towards an agroecological transition.
The impact of climate change is already evident in India’s crop yields, with projections indicating further losses.
Crop loss due to rise in temperature
Research cited in the paper estimates that a 1°C rise in temperature over the past five decades has reduced average yields across crops nationally by about 8%. The impact is greater for climate-sensitive crops such as maize, where yield losses have reached up to 16%.
A 20% decline in rainfall could reduce paddy yields by 12%, the research found. Wheat production in India could fall by as much as 23% by 2050 under climate change scenarios. The paper also cites projections of a 10-17% decline in fish catches by 2050.
Effects beyond the farm
The effects extend beyond farms to markets and retailers. During the summer of 2024, India's hottest year on record, mangoes that typically last around two days in the market perished within a day. A fruit seller at Delhi's Azadpur Mandi lost more than ₹1 lakh as a result, the report noted.
The paper describes small retailers as "the weakest link in the supply chain", pointing to their vulnerability to heat-related losses.
India loses 30-40% of its fruits and vegetables and 5-6% of its grains because of inadequate storage and transportation facilities, according to the report. With only 4% of fresh produce covered by cold-chain facilities, annual food losses are estimated at $13 billion.
Heat stress also causes annual losses of around 1.8 million tonnes of milk, equivalent to about 2% of national production and resulting in economic losses of approximately ₹2,661 crore.
Climate shocks are also contributing to food inflation. The report cites a Reserve Bank of India study which found that a one-unit increase in temperature deviation raised vegetable inflation by around 1.3 percentage points during April 2014-March 2024.
In 2024, extreme heatwaves affected onion production, pushing prices up by 80%. The paper also points to the impact of heat stress on wheat production in 2022, when output declined from 109.59 million tonnes in 2020-21 to 106.83 million tonnes in 2021-22. The shortfall prompted the government to restrict wheat exports to protect domestic supplies.
"Food inflation is becoming 'endemic' in India as extreme weather conditions disrupt production and supply chains," the paper says.
The economic costs could become substantial. Climate-related losses in paddy, wheat and maize alone could amount to between 0.28% and 1.02% of India's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, according to estimates cited in the report.
The paper also warns that existing agricultural practices are weakening the ecological foundations of food production. Heavy dependence on chemical fertilisers, groundwater extraction, and continuous paddy-wheat cultivation has contributed to soil degradation, water stress, and declining agricultural resilience.
Recomendations
The paper calls for a shift away from a predominantly chemical-intensive, yield-focused agricultural model towards agroecological practices that restore soil health, conserve water, diversify crops and reduce dependence on external chemical inputs.
The report recommends reforms in agricultural research, extension services, credit, insurance, procurement and subsidies to support farmers through this transition. It also calls for stronger early-warning systems, block-level weather advisories, climate-resilient seeds, crop insurance and decentralised storage and processing facilities.
A key concern is the shortage of adaptation finance for small farmers. The paper estimates that small farmers in South Asia, cultivating 10 hectares or less, needed $150.3 billion in climate adaptation finance in 2021. However, only $210 million was available, equivalent to 0.13% of the requirement.
It cites Andhra Pradesh's community-managed natural farming programme as an example of an alternative approach. Launched in 2016, the programme has reached more than 1.77 million farmers across over 920,000 hectares. Reported outcomes include a 38-66% increase in farmer incomes over four years, a reduction of up to 50% in water use and up to 46% lower greenhouse gas emissions per acre.
The paper argues that the transition must be phased and adequately funded, with research, extension services, assured markets and targeted financial support to ensure farmers do not lose income while adopting sustainable practices.
"Investing in agroecology is not merely an environmental imperative but a strategic necessity" for safeguarding India's food security, economic stability and rural livelihoods, it says.
