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Live: Exit polls predict BJP victory in Gujarat elections, sweep in Himachal

Exit poll results show Narendra Modi’s BJP winning Gujarat elections and Rahul Gandhi’s Congress improving its 2012 tally. Here are the live updates:

india Updated: Dec 14, 2017 21:15 IST
HT Correspondent
HT Correspondent
Hindustan Times, New Delhi
Gujarat election,Gujarat election result,exit polls
Congress supporters during an election campaign meeting Gujarat’s in Dakor. Analysts have predicted that the opposition party could give the BJP, which has been in power in the state for 22 years, a tough fight this time around.(Reuters)

All seven exit polls on Thursday showed the BJP was headed for a win in Gujarat after the two-phase assembly elections concluded in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state.

Analysts earlier predicted the Congress could give the BJP, which has been in power in the state for 22 years, a fight this time around.

Gujarat has seen a bitter and intense campaign from both sides over issues ranging from vikas, demonetisation and GST to unemployment and rural distress. The final week saw personal attacks, with Congress’ Mani Shankar Aiyar calling Narendra Modi a “neech kisam ka aadmi” and the prime minister retorting with a ‘Pakistan collusion’ charge.

The contest in Gujarat, Modi’s home state, will be keenly watched for signs of voter reaction to some of Modi’s radical economic policies that made doing business far more complicated and raised the cost of compliance. For the Congress, the stakes have never been higher – Gujarat will be the first test of Rahul Gandhi as Congress president.

Opinion and exit polls in India have a chequered history. The grand alliance of the JD(U), RJD and the Congress proved all exit polls wrong in 2015 as it was declared the winner of a shrill and bitterly fought Bihar assembly elections.

Exit poll predictions for Gujarat:

AGENCYBJPCongress+ Others
Today’s Chanakya135 +/- 1147 +/- 110 +/- 3
Times Now-VMR 113 +/- 366 +/- 33 +/- 3
News Nation124-12852-561-3
India Today-Axis99-11368-821-4

Here are the live updates:

9.14pm: Congress spokesperson Shobha Oza says exit polls have been wrong in elections before. “I don’t know how much you trust the exit polls. We have seen exit polls in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Punjab. All of them proved to be wrong. So, how much can one trust the exit polls.

“We will wait for the 18th for the real results. Let’s not take these exit polls too seriously. We have seen them go wrong in many states in the past,” Oza says. “Definitely we are winning in Gujarat.”

7.50pm: Quick look at all exit polls for Himachal Pradesh:

7.14pm: ‘We are confident that BJP won’t be able to win Gujarat this time,’ Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani tells News18. Mevani is contesting the election as a Congress-backed Independent.

7.12pm: ABP exit poll predicts Congress will lose Himachal Pradesh. BJP to get 38 seats, Congress 29.

7.07pm: Exit poll prediction by Today’s Chanakya for Gujarat Elections 2017: BJP 135 ± 11 (Plus / Minus 11) seats; Congress: 47 ± 11 (Plus / Minus 11) seats; Others: 0 ± 3 (Plus / Minus 3) seats.

7.03pm: Final projection of Times Now-VMR survey for 182 seats in Gujarat: BJP: 113; Congress: 66; Others: 3

7pm: Congress will get more than 100 seats and BJP will get less than that: Congress leader Rajeev Shukla tells Times Now.

6.50pm: ABP-CSDS projects win for BJP in Gujarat with 117 seats, Congress likely to get 64.

6.42pm: Final turnout during second phase of polling in Gujarat is 68.70 %, says EC.

6.40pm: In Himachal Pradesh, News24 projects win for BJP with 55 seats; Congress to get 13 seats.

6.38pm: NDTV’s Poll of Polls

6.35pm: ABP exit poll for Central Gujarat region (40 seats) based on data till 2pm: BJP: 21-27 (47% vote share); Congress: 13-19 seats (42% vote share).

6.30pm: It is clear from the exit polls that the 150+ number that Amit Shah was expecting is not there: JD(S)’ Kunwar Danish Ali tells Times Now.

6.25pm: NDTV Poll of Polls for Himachal Pradesh (68 seats): BJP: 49, Congress: 18

6.20pm: Be it Akhilesh Yadav, Omar Abdullah, whosoever Rahul Gandhi has stood by, has flopped. Watch what happens to the three youths in Gujarat: BJP spokesperson Sudhanshu Trivedi tells ABP News.

6.14pm: We are going to get 150 seats says Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani.

6.12pm: NDTV Poll of Polls predictions for Gujarat (182 seats): BJP: 112; Congress: 70.

6.08pm: ABP exit poll for North Gujarat region (53 seats) based on data till 2pm: BJP: 32-38 (49% vote share); Congress: 16-22 seats (42% vote share).

6.05pm: Today’s Chanakya exit poll for Himachal Pradesh: BJP 55; Congress 13.

6.03pm: India Today Axis poll vote share projections for Gujarat: BJP: 47%, Congress: 42%, Others: 11%

6.01pm: The ABP exit poll figure for the first phase of Gujarat elections (Saurashtra and South Gujarat) with 89 seats: BJP: (34+24) 58 seats; Congress: (19+11) 30 seats.

5.58pm: CSDS survey for South Gujarat projections: BJP: 21-27; Congress: 9-13, Others: 01.

5.57pm: SAHARA SAMAY-CNX survey shows BJP will get 110-120 seats, Congress 65-75.

5.55pm: The NewsX-CNX Exit Poll numbers put the BJP at 115, Congress at 65.

5.50pm: On exit polls projecting a win for BJP in Gujarat and Himachal, Shahid Siddiqui, editor, Nai Duniya, tells Times Now: ‘If these are the final numbers, then there will be big question mark on Congress and Rahul Gandhi.’

5.43pm: India Today projects a sweeping win for BJP in Himachal Pradesh with 47-55, Congress to get 13-20.

5.40pm: Republic-Jan Ki Baat prediction for Gujarat: BJP: 108; Congress: 74.

5.34pm: BJP likely to sweep the 54-seat Saurashtra-Kutch region: BJP: 31-37, Congress: 16-22, Others 0-2.

5.29pm: This is what the outgoing Gujarat assembly looked like: BJP: 115; Congress: 61; Others: 6

5.26pm: CNN-News18 Mega Poll of Polls: Well-known economist Surjit Bhalla’s prediction for Gujarat:
BJP: 125; Congress: 57

5.23pm: Times Now-VMR projects a win for BJP with 109, Congress gets 70.

ABP-CSDS projects a win for BJP with 91-99; Congress with 78-86.

5.19pm: News channel ABP has tied up with CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) for their exit poll.

5.04pm: Voting for second phase of Gujarat elections ends.

4.50pm: What is an exit poll: It is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations, unlike an opinion poll, which is conducted before the voter actually votes. Results of exit polls are generally considered to be more trustworthy than that of opinion polls.

First Published: Dec 14, 2017 17:07 IST