Floor test best chance for Gehlot, say Congress leaders

If 19 Congress MLAs were disqualified, it would bring down the strength of the assembly to 181, and the halfway mark 91, giving Gehlot a comfortable majority.

The Ashok Gehlot government now sees its best chance in Rajasthan in a floor test in the assembly, after the Supreme Court refused to stay the Rajasthan high court proceedings about speaker CP Joshi’s disqualification notice to 19 rebel Congress MLAs led by former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot.

Gehlot appears to have the support of 101 members — the majority mark in the 200-member state assembly (though this does not include Joshi). Pilot has 18 other Congress MLAs and three independents, taking his tally to 22. (PTI)

According to two party strategists aware of the matter, a section in the party was wary of Joshi’s decision to go to the Supreme Court to seek stay the high court’s proceedings

They also said on condition of anonymity that since the high court put on hold its verdict (and effectively the disqualification proceedings), until the top court weighs on the larger issue of the court’s jurisdiction in the matter, proving a majority in the assembly quickly is the only way forward for Gehlot while he is still confident of the numbers.

The Congress strategists also contended that governor Kalraj Mishra, a former Union minister in the previous Narendra Modi government , will not be able to hold back consent for an assembly session for long if an elected government seeks it. But they saw little merit in going to court for a direction to the governor to hurry his consent, fearing that it might add to the delay. A delay, they added, would only give the Opposition and the Congress rebels time to win over more MLAs to their side.

As things stand, Gehlot appears to have the support of 101 members — the majority mark in the 200-member state assembly (though this does not include Joshi). Pilot has 18 other Congress MLAs and three independents, taking his tally to 22.

The BJP and its ally Rashtriya Loktrantrik Party have 75 seats. One Congress MLA, Bhanwarlal Meghwal, is indisposed, though he is said to be close to Pilot. If Pilot’s tally is added to that of opposition, it takes their number up to 97. This means a three-member swing from the Gehlot camp to the Pilot camp or to the BJP could lead to the government falling in a no-confidence motion.

If 19 Congress MLAs were disqualified, it would bring down the strength of the assembly to 181, and the halfway mark 91, giving Gehlot a comfortable majority.

The Congress legal team, led by Abhishek Singhvi, supported Pilot’s disqualification citing his conduct and remarks of aides under Chapter 2 (1) (a) of the 10th Schedule of the Constitution which says a member can be disqualified “if he has voluntarily given up his membership”.

But another section felt the evidence provided might not be enough to prove Pilot’s intention to leave the party. Chapter 2(1)(b) of Tenth Schedule says a lawmaker can be disqualified “if he votes or abstains from voting in such House contrary to any direction issued by the political party to which he belongs or by any person or authority authorised by it in this behalf without obtaining prior permission”.

A senior Congress leader felt that once the house is convened, the Pilot’s camp refusal to adhere to party’s directions would be more serious grounds for disqualification than not attending two legislature party meetings.