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Opinion | Lok Sabha elections 2019: In Rahul Gandhi’s Amethi, it’ll be a battle of emotions
The BJP’s main target was Amethi, a constituency created in 1967, represented by the Congress for 44 years and by the Gandhis for 28 years.
Soon after the 2017 assembly poll results in Uttar Pradesh were announced, a beaming BJP president Amit Shah said, “Of 10 seats, we won six with big margins. It makes us happy as we did not do well here in 2014. From now on, politics will take a new direction in UP.”
His reference was to the party’s performance in assembly constituencies that make up the Gandhi family’s Lok Sabha pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi. The BJP’s main target was Amethi, a constituency created in 1967, represented by the Congress for 44 years and by the Gandhis for 28 years. Such has been the personal connect of the area with the Gandhis that as long as Rajiv Gandhi was alive, the opposition even struggled to find a place on rent for the party office or to hoist their flag.
All told, the parliamentary constituency of Amethi has five assembly constituencies, Tiloi, Jagdishpur, Gauriganj, Amethi and Salon which falls in Rae Bareli district. The SP won three of these constituencies in 2012, the Congress, two. In 2017, the BJP won four and the SP, one.
In Rae Bareli, which has five assembly constituencies, the BJP won two in 2017, the Congress two, and the SP, one. In 2012, the SP won four of these and the PECP, one.
Rajiv Gandhi’s son Rahul Gandhi was first elected from the constituency in 2004.
Shah’s comments in 2017 were based on two facts.
One, Rahul Gandhi’s victory margin of Rahul sharply declined in 2014. It fell from 3,70,198 votes in 2009 to 1,07,903 votes in 2014. BJP candidate Smriti Irani garnered over three lakh votes in her maiden election.
Mehndi Naqvi, an independent Nagar Palika member in Amethi, says: “Rahul did face a tough challenge in 2014”. He suggests that it was the support of people such as himself, who “returned to the Congress” after initially supporting Aam Aadmi Party candidate Kumar Vishwas, that turned the election in Gandhi’s favour.
The BJP has been in power before in the parliamentary constituency before – in 1998 when the Congress’ Sanjay Sinh crossed over to it.
However, more than his joining the party, it was the absence of a Gandhi in the fray that helped the BJP.
After the demise of Rajiv Gandhi, family friend Satish Sharma fought the 1991 by-poll, and then the 1996 and 1998 elections on a Congress ticket. Thereafter, Sonia Gandhi entered politics and won the seat in 1999.
Two, the Congress fared poorly in the 2012 and 2017 assembly elections.
The BJP is confident that the trend will continue in the 2019 parliamentary elections.
Party strategists believe that its development pitch will score over the emotional connect for the Gandhis in Amethi.
Smriti Irani has frequently visited the area and people credit her for meeting their decades-old demand for the construction of a bundh over Gomti river and the creation of infrastructure to unload fertiliser shipped to the area by train at Gauriganj instead of Rae Barelli.
However, the people in the constituency appear divided. They aren’t sure the BJP has done enough for them in terms of development – something which could explain the fight between the BJP and the Congress over a gun factory in the constituency.
This is not the first time the people of Amethi are witnessing politics over development.
Rajiv Gandhi turned Amethi’s Jagdishpur into an industrial area. His death, coupled with the Congress’s decline in the state in the 1990s and 2000s saw the closure of industries. Successive non-Congress governments neglected Amethi till the BJP decided to defeat Gandhi here in 2014.
That wasn’t to be although, in a wave election, the BJP did put up a tough fight. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi campaigning for the first time in 10 years in the constituency, highlighting the family’s bonding with the area.
This time again, the BJP is keen on proving a point in Amethi. It may not be easy, though.
Gandhi is now the Congress party’s president and also its prime ministerial face.
“In the coming polls, Amethi will be electing PM, and not merely an MP,” says Javed Farooqi, a Congress worker.
According to him, the 2014 election was fought on a Modi wave and the promise of a Ram temple in Ayodhya.
This time, there is no wave.
Gandhi will also be the joint opposition candidate as both the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have decided not to field a candidate against him. AAP may also stay away from Amethi.
Moreover, in a war between emotions and aspirations, the former may still prevail.
But if 2014 is any indication, it will not be a cakewalk.
