Number theory: Can India’s demographic dividend help it overtake the Chinese economy?

By July 1, India’s population will be an estimated 1.429 billion, 2.96 million more than China’s estimated population.

The United Nations believes that India’s population has overtaken China’s or will do so by July 1. By then, India’s population will be an estimated 1.429 billion, 2.96 million more than China’s estimated population on that day. A high population, especially in a younger age cohort, is generally seen as an asset rather than a liability for the economic fortunes of a country. The simple reason for this is that more people also means more working hands.

China’s population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of “unstoppable” decline, a government report said. (AP File Photo)

It is this understanding which has generated a widespread consensus that India is now enjoying a unique demographic dividend. To be sure, a demographic dividend is not a guarantee that a country will catapult its economy to a significantly higher income level and this reasoning holds for India’s economic prospects vis à vis China as well. Here are three charts that explain this argument in detail.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3