What BJP, Congress, JD(S) have at stake in Karnataka bypolls

All the three major parties in Karnataka - the BJP, the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) - are going all-out for win in the Sira and RR Nagar bypolls though their results will have no effect on the survival of the state government.

For chief minister BS Yediyurappa victories in one or both the constituencies would underscore the BJP’s continued dependence on his appeal in the state. Also the fate of Vijayendra, the younger son of Yediyurappa, would be determined by the Sira bypoll outcome. Vijayendra is the vice president of the state unit of BJP. A victory in Sira, where the party has never even come second, would underscore his ability to pull off upsets after a similar one in KR Pete last year.

Any loss in both the constituencies might further shorten Yediyurappa’s tenure as the high command is keen on replacing the ageing Lingayat leader with a fresh face. So it is important for Yediyurappa and his son Vijayendra to ensure victories although the state government, with 117 members plus the support of three independents in a house of 225 members, is safe.

The stakes are equally high for the DK brothers - state Congress chief DK Shivakumar and his parliamentarian younger brother DK Suresh. RR Nagar assembly constituency is a part of Bengaluru Rural which Suresh represents in the Lok Sabha. Also, this is the first electoral challenge that the Congress is facing after Shivakumar took over as state party chief in March of last year. Shivakumar also handpicked the candidate in RR Nagar and chose to back an old warhorse - a former minister TB Jayachandra in Sira.

Regional JDS has the most to lose as it has been shrinking for several years now. For the JDS, led by the Gowda family, HD Deve Gowda, HD Kumaraswamy and HD Revanna - a loss in both seats might mean that their traditional hold on the Vokkaliga community is a thing of the past.

Their aspiration to remain as kingmakers in Karnataka politics by being the swing third pole which determines who rules the state might also be impacted if they lose both the seats which are Vokkaliga dominated. So all three players are keen to emerge victorious.