Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Divided Opposition in Telangana gives KCR the upper hand

After a thumping victory in the December assembly elections in Telangana and a number of defections from opposition parties, the TRS aims to sweep the state, while the Congress is hoping for a comeback.

Until about a year ago, a mention of general elections would trigger a heated discussion anywhere in Telangana – would the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) continue its dominance or would the Congress finally reap the reward for announcing the bifurcation of erstwhile united Andhra Pradesh in the dying days of its term? And, would the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) be able to leverage its support among the Andhra settlers or would the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) succeed in striking root in yet another state?

TRS Supremo and Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao (PTI)

But with roughly two weeks to go for the Lok Sabha polls in the state, any speculation on the election outcome has been muted and experts appear united in the assessment that the TRS looks set to dominate the polls; the opposition seems to be in disarray and unable to match the ruling party in the campaign or in dictating the narrative.

“The TRS chief [chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR)] is playing his cards very well and it is unlikely that the Congress will have the capacity to defeat him in the game in the Lok Sabha polls,” said Tankasala Ashok, a senior columnist and political analyst.

Welfare focus

In a surprise gamble in September last year, KCR dissolved the assembly and called for state elections six months ahead of schedule. The move rattled the opposition, which responded by quickly cobbling together a grand alliance, or Maha Kootami, comprising the Congress, TDP and smaller parties.

When the results were announced in December, KCR won a landslide and the opposition was decimated – the voters appeared to have reposed trust in the twin TRS campaign issues of Telangana pride and government welfare schemes. The TRS bagged 88 seats in a house of 119, while the Congress was reduced to just 19 seats. The force of the victory was such that it shattered the opposition alliance, and the constituent parties are fighting the Lok Sabha elections separately.

The bad news for the opposition didn’t stop with the election results.

Two independents joined the TRS within a week of the announcement of results on December 12, and in the last three months, nine Congress MLAs, including former home minister Sabita Indra Reddy, joined the ruling party, reducing the Congress strength in the assembly to just 10. Besides, a TDP MLA also shifted loyalties to the ruling party, thereby helping KCR to accomplish his “Mission 100” (f having 100 MLAs in the assembly).

“After an emphatic victory in the recently concluded assembly elections, the TRS is up and ahead in the race for the Lok Sabha elections in Telangana for the 16 seats where it would contest. The TRS narrative is strong and convincing: give us seats so we can play a strong hand in Delhi,” said political analyst and writer Sriram Karri.

The TRS has got a head start in the campaign. KCR’s son KT Rama Rao, who took over as the party’s working president within a week of the assembly election results, has started touring districts, building up the party network and preparing the cadre to face the elections.

Apart from campaigning in all 17 parliamentary constituencies, KCR is focusing on welfare and development schemes, which were seen as crucial to his thumping re-election in December.

The farmers have already received the second instalment of the payment under the Rythu Bandhu scheme, under which the government pays farmers ₹4,000 per acre per season, for the Rabi season, and crop loans of up to ₹1 lakh are set to be waived. The government has also distributed sarees for the New Year, and is preparing proposals to hike pensions, and provide ₹3,000 as an unemployment allowance. The opposition alleges these schemes will dent the state’s coffers significantly, but the TRS rubbishes these claims, saying the proposals will benefit large sections of the state.

“I don’t think there would be any large difference in the mandate between the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections, because there is hardly any time between the two,” said Ashok.

Divided Opposition

When the Congress government at the Centre decided in 2014 to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh after decades of often-violent protests, it was taking a calculated gamble. The party knew its popularity would plunge in the residual coastal state, where the division was deeply resented, but decided to bet on the 17 seats in the newly formed state, where it thought it would get rewarded for granting the emotive demand.

But when elections was announced, it was KCR who emerged as the face of the Telangana struggle and his party swept the state, with the Congress winning just two Lok Sabha seats. And, with the drubbing in the assembly elections, the morale of the Congress appears low.

Days after parting ways with the Maha Kootami, the Congress announced it would contest all 17 Lok Sabha seats, but with the exodus of MLAs and senior leaders, the party is finding it difficult to field candidates. It has had to nominate sitting MLAs, such as state chief N Uttam Kumar Reddy who is fighting from Nalgonda, for the Lok Sabha elections.

Infighting in the Congress hasn’t stopped. Last week, a Dalit leader of the party, Manne Krishank, set fire to the party flags, posters, banners and other publicity material, estimated to be worth ₹15 lakh, and joined the TRS.

The TDP, which was badly bruised in the assembly polls, is yet to take a decision on fighting the elections. The party is fighting to retain its hold over neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, where it is facing a resurgent opposition in the YSR Congress in the simultaneous assembly and parliamentary elections.

The Communist Party of India and Telangana Jana Sena have fielded candidates in a handful of seats.

According to a senior Congress leader, there is a possibility that having voted for the TRS in the assembly elections based on the performance of the KCR government, people would look to the Congress as the only alternative to the BJP at the national level. “They cannot vote for the TRS in parliament elections, as it is no force at the Centre,” he said on condition of anonymity.

Experts disagree

“KCR won the assembly elections based on his government’s performance and his credibility is at its peak now. The Congress will try to exploit the Muslim sentiment by saying KCR is hand in glove with [Prime Minister Narendra Modi]. But, so far, KCR has not taken any political stand to support the BJP and said he was maintaining cordial relations with the Modi government to secure what is due to the state,” said Ashok.

“The Congress, fresh from the defeat, might not be able to muster enough money, morale, cadre and leader to inveigle a strong support,” added Karri.

National Role

Over the past year, KCR has met several political leaders, such as his West Bengal counterpart Mamata Banerjee and Odisha counterpart Naveen Patnaik, to push his idea of a federal front, a grouping of non-Congress, non-BJP regional parties. A good performance in the Lok Sabha polls would give him the opportunity to play a central role in national politics.

The TRS aims to win 16 of the 17 seats – the constituency Hyderabad is left for its ally, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which has held the seat for 30 years – and has targeted both the Congress and the BJP in projecting a more federalised model of governance with a greater role for the states.

In recent rallies, KCR has also hit out at the BJP, which has decided to fight all 17 seats and has been buoyed by the entry of senior Congress leader DK Aruna. Experts said the reason for the strategy is that KCR doesn’t want to appear too close to the BJP and alienate the Muslims, who form 12.7% of the total electorate.

A TRS leader said on condition of anonymity that the party might fan the Telangana sentiment once again by projecting KCR as a prospective prime ministerial candidate if the federal front comes to power at the Centre. “That would have huge impact on the electorate,” he added.

Political analyst K Srinivas Reddy said, “Local issues of Telangana would not play much...as the TRS already got the people’s mandate on these issues in the assembly elections. However, the ongoing political developments at the national level, where there is an attempt to consolidate all the anti-BJP forces might have some impact .

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