Novel risk calculator predicts when you will die
The calculator which can accurately predict whether a patient with type 2 diabetes and obesity will die or develop serious complications including a heart attack, heart failure and diabetic kidney disease.
According to a new study presented by researchers at Cleveland Clinic has developed a web-based risk calculator which can accurately predict whether a patient with type 2 diabetes and obesity will die or develop serious complications including a heart attack, heart failure and diabetic kidney disease.
The study was discussed in a meeting ‘ObesityWeek.’
Studies have shown that for most patients with obesity, metabolic surgery, which includes procedures such as sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass, is superior to medical therapy in improving type 2 diabetes and in lowering the risk of heart attacks, strokes and other major adverse cardiovascular events.
According to the study, patients who had metabolic surgery were 39 per cent less likely to experience a heart-, stroke-, or diabetic kidney-related complication and 41 per cent were less likely to die from any cause. The study compared the outcomes of 13,722 patients with type 2 diabetes and obesity (2,287 metabolic surgery patients and 11,435 closely matched patients who were eligible for surgery but received standard medical therapy).
Now, these same researchers have taken this data and in a new study identified the factors that contribute to four potential adverse outcomes from diabetes -- death, cardiovascular event, heart failure and diabetic kidney disease.
Using rigorous statistical analysis and machine learning, accurate prediction models were created and integrated into the new Individualized Diabetes Complication (IDC) Risk Calculator, which provides a 10-year personalized risk score if a patient continues his or her current treatment or undergoes metabolic surgery. The risk calculation is made based on a combination of variables including the patient’s age, medical history, body mass index, diabetes control, and medication usage.
Lead study author Ali Aminian, a bariatric surgeon and associate professor of surgery at the Cleveland Clinic, said, “The IDC Risk Calculator can provide a glimpse into the future for individuals with diabetes and obesity, and demonstrate the impact usual medical care versus metabolic surgery would have on their risk of death or major complications.”
“This can better inform treatment decisions and doctor recommendations and hopefully lead to improved patient care and outcomes,” he added.
The IDC Risk Calculator is available in the Cleveland Clinic Risk Calculator Library and may also be downloaded as an app for Android and iOS (BariatricCalc).
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