Shiv Sena’s poll position not new, but timing is noteworthy | Mumbai news - Hindustan Times
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Shiv Sena’s poll position not new, but timing is noteworthy

Hindustan Times, Mumbai | By
Jan 24, 2018 09:43 AM IST

The Sena’s announcement comes at a time when the BJP is getting ready for the next electoral battle amid buzz that the ruling party would go for elections earlier than scheduled next year.

There is nothing new in what Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray said on Tuesday or what the resolution passed by the national executive of the Shiv Sena announced. Ahead of the Mumbai civic polls last year, Thackeray had announced that the Shiv Sena would contest all future elections on its own. On Tuesday, the national executive of the party endorsed his views.

The relations between the two ruling allies have not been cordial since the two sides parted ways ahead of the 2014 assembly elections and later came together to run the government in the state.(FILE)
The relations between the two ruling allies have not been cordial since the two sides parted ways ahead of the 2014 assembly elections and later came together to run the government in the state.(FILE)

What is probably noteworthy is the timing.

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The Sena’s announcement comes at a time when the BJP is getting ready for the next electoral battle and the buzz is the ruling party would go for elections earlier than scheduled next year. There is also a likelihood of Maharashtra state elections being held along with the Lok Saba polls as the Maharashtra Assembly’s five-year tenure ends just six months after the Lok Sabha’s term.

The relations between the two ruling allies have not exactly been cordial ever since the two sides parted ways ahead of the 2014 assembly elections and later came together to run the government in the state. The Sena has been unable to digest the fact that the BJP became the big brother in the saffron combine. Not willing to play second fiddle and unhappy with the allocation of less significant portfolios in the central as well as state governments, the Sena leadership has been bitterly criticising the BJP and Modi government in past three years.

Now in the run-up to the next Lok Sabha-assembly polls, the Sena knows a pre-election alliance with the BJP is difficult. As such the party has gone to town announcing its decision to contest solo.

So what will be the impact of the Sena’s decision on Maharashtra politics?

The Sena insiders say the party leadership is of the opinion the BJP may not retain its tally, but the Sena would do well.

As such, even if the BJP returns to power it will be with reduced numbers and the difference between the seats held by the two parties could be much less. This is easier said than done. The recent local polls have shown the BJP has done well than the Sena in both urban and rural areas.

On the other hand, if the Sena contests separately, it will split votes from both the sides, the BJP as well as the Opposition. In 2014, the Sena damaged the Opposition, but it also took some seats away from the BJP and was seen as a reason why the BJP could not reach 145 to win a simple majority in Maharashtra Assembly.

This time, if the Congress-NCP forge an alliance, a divided Sena-BJP could end up losing a number of seats and find it difficult to retain power. As far as the Lok Sabha elections are concerned, the BJP is already planning to contest all 48 seats.

Party insiders think they have a chance to win more than 26 seats the party won in 2014 in the alliance with the Sena as PM Modi’s appeal is intact.

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Shailesh Gaikwad is political editor and heads the political bureau in Hindustan Times' Mumbai edition.In his career of over 20 years, he has covered Maharashtra politics, state government and urban governance issues.

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