Monsoon to arrive in Mumbai by June 7, 3 days ahead of schedule, says weather bureau
However, the southwest monsoon may not advance over interior Maharashtra till June 8, an expert said.Updated: May 31, 2018 12:38 IST
The southwest monsoon is expected to reach Mumbai between June 6 and 8, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
“Conditions are likely to become favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south peninsula around June 3. Rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa states from June 6, leading to probable advance over these areas during June 6 and 8,” the IMD release read.
If the monsoon makes its landing over Mumbai by June 7, it will do so three days before its scheduled arrival, which is June 10. “The Konkan coast, including Mumbai, could expect the arrival of the monsoon by June 7. However, location-wise advancement is not forecasted by IMD. The exact date and how intensely the southwest monsoon currents advance over central India has to observed over the coming days,” said Sunita Devi from IMD, New Delhi.
The southwest monsoon made its landing along the Kerala coast on Tuesday. Last year, monsoon hit Mumbai on June 12. However, last year, it arrived a day earlier than predicted by the IMD. In 2016, it arrived in Mumbai on June 20, 10 days later than the predicted date.
The second stage long-range forecast by IMD also stated that rainfall over the country as a whole for 2018 is most likely to be ‘normal’ – that is, 96% to 104% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 4%, which means 97% of near normal showers. Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 99% of LPA over Central India with a model error of plus or minus 8 %.
Akshay Deoras, meteorologist and independent meteorological advisor to the Maharashtra government, said based on weather models studied by him, the southwest monsoon may not advance over interior Maharashtra at least till June 8.
“While rainfall activity may increase along the Konkan coast, including Mumbai, by June 7, interior Maharashtra cannot expect the southwest monsoon to set in before June 8,” Deoras said.
Experts said the IMD forecast was accurate and conditions were favourable for monsoon to come to Maharashtra early. “As per what is being observed, southwest monsoon should not be delayed beyond June 7 or 8 in Mumbai. Due to heating or heat trough over northern India, the southwest monsoon covers more area over south and central India. More the heating, the more distance it will travel northwards,” said B Mukhopadhyay, former additional director, IMD.
First Published: May 31, 2018 12:04 IST