EVs are still the best bet to cut transport emission
India aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, and reducing emissions from road transport will be one of the main factors determining whether India can meet its goal
After a gap of three years, primarily due to the Covid-19 outbreak, India’s premier vehicle exhibition, the Auto Expo 2023, returned this year. With a central theme of sustainability, the event focussed on alternative fuels, especially electric vehicles (EVs). India’s largest car manufacturer, Maruti Suzuki, debuted its first electric vehicle, a concept EV called the eVX. Hyundai announced the IONIQ 5 electric car. Kia and MG also announced new models and concepts. The most ambitious announcement came from Tata Motors, which announced an increase in the EV contribution to 25% in five years and 50% by 2030, intending to go net-zero by 2040.
These announcements sparked heated debates about how to reduce transport emissions. Are EVs clean? Should India focus on EVs when the predominant source of electricity is coal?
Let’s look at these questions in a little more detail.
Cleaning transport is vital for climate and public health targets. Emissions from the transport sector are responsible for almost a quarter of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. In India, emissions from the transport sector continue to grow steadily and account for nearly 14% of CO2 emissions, 90% of which is from road transport.
A 2018 study by the Automotive Research Association of India and The Energy and Resources Institute identified motor vehicle exhaust as the primary source of air pollutants in Delhi. Furthermore, they found that it’s about 40% of the city’s PM2.5 emissions. Therefore, the Indian auto industry can play a significant role in achieving climate and public health targets. It’s even more critical as India recently overtook Japan to become the third largest automobile market globally.
How can this get done? The internal combustion engine cannot deliver on the Paris Agreement climate goals. This is borne out by research by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), which looked at GHG emissions from passenger cars. The study found that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) driving on hydrogen, made using renewable electricity, allowed for a deep reduction in GHG emissions, compared to gasoline, diesel, and natural gas-powered cars.
For vehicles powered by biofuels, GHG reduction benefits were found to be minimal even with a modest share in fuel blends (5% to 20% ethanol and up to 5% biodiesel). While increasing the amount of biofuel in the blends could further reduce GHG emissions, the supply of waste- and residue-based biofuel feedstock is highly constrained, and it is unlikely there will be enough to displace fossil fuel substantially. Food-based biofuels, on the other hand, not only cause additional emissions from indirect land-use change but also can interfere with food security. The story is the same for trucks. A different study that examined the well-to-wheel (life-cycle) emissions of liquefied natural gas trucks showed that they are worse than diesel if 20-year global warming potentials (GWP) and all GHGs are considered. This is because of the high GWP of methane and the methane leakage that occurs both upstream and downstream.
EVs are cleaner, even with India’s existing power grid, which gets almost three-fourths of its electricity from fossil fuels. Even in this scenario, BEVs emit less over their lifetimes than internal combustion engines, mainly because the electric motor is far more efficient than the combustion engine. Battery electric cars registered in India in 2021 are estimated to produce 19% — 34% fewer GHG emissions than gasoline cars, as per ICCT’s research. The emissions reduction in the case of electric two-wheelers is even more significant, 33%–50% less than gasoline models. In the financial year 2021–22, nearly 11% of India’s electricity was produced from renewable sources, and India has a target to produce 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030.
With the rise in renewable energy, BEV emissions reductions will only increase. BEVs powered by renewable electricity generate the least emissions, even lower than FCEVs powered by green hydrogen. Hydrogen technology is still evolving and is likely to find some application in India’s heavy-duty vehicle fleet; but it is clear that zero-tailpipe emission vehicles are the future, with BEVs being viable in most vehicle category options.
India aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, and reducing emissions from road transport will be one of the main factors determining whether India can meet its goal. Therefore, the country must develop robust policies that not only aid electric mobility but simultaneously deter internal combustion engine vehicles, with the more significant aim of phasing them out gradually.
Amit Bhatt is managing director (India) for the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).
The views expressed are personal