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US Green Card restrictions: Will Indian techies invest in property back home?
US Green Card curbs: While the move may prompt some Indian techies to reassess their plans, whether they invest in real estate back home remains to be seen
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The US government’s suspension of the Permanent Labour Certification (PERM) programme for major IT outsourcing companies raises a key question: will Indian professionals in the US repatriate their dollar savings to buy homes back in India, or will uncertainty prompt NRI buyers to hold off on property investments until the situation becomes clearer?
Most real estate experts believe professionals affected by the move are likely to remain cautious for now. Those who return to India may buy homes, but a large-scale repatriation of dollar savings is unlikely. Moreover, NRI purchases account for a relatively small share of India’s overall housing market, limiting the potential impact on national sales volumes.
Gulam Zia, International Partner and Senior Executive Director - Research, Advisory, Infrastructure and Valuation, Knight Frank, is of the view that investing in India may not make financial sense for someone earning in dollars, as currency movements could erode returns.
“If approvals and employment opportunities become more constrained, Indian professionals with the necessary skills could become more sought after in the US. However, it remains to be seen how many Indians already living there would actually want to return to India,” he said.
“Most professionals affected by this will probably remain cautious for now. The pause slows down green card processing, not current visas, so few will choose to return immediately. Those who do return are likely to buy homes, but a mass repatriation of dollar savings is unlikely. NRI buyers will continue to be choosy and will go for ready-to-move-in or near-ready homes from credible developers in established micro-markets,” said Aayush Puri, CEO – Residential, Middle East, and CEO – ANAROCK Channel Partners.
Will luxury housing demand be affected?
If more Indian IT professionals return home, could this lead to increased demand for luxury housing in cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Mumbai, and Delhi-NCR?
“Returning professionals could contribute to demand for luxury housing, but the impact is likely to be marginal and gradual,” Puri said.
NRI demand remains too small a share of the national housing market for a change in purchases by this group to materially affect overall sales volumes, he said.
According to ANAROCK Research, homes priced above ₹1 crore accounted for 50% of residential sales in FY26. Cities with large employment bases, including Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Mumbai and Delhi-NCR, could see any incremental demand first. However, if professionals return gradually, the effect on sales volumes is also likely to be spread over time.
How significant are US-based NRIs for India's housing market?
NRIs account for a relatively small share of total home sales, with their purchases concentrated largely in the premium and luxury segments. US-based Indians are an important part of this buyer pool, alongside NRIs from the Gulf, the UK and Singapore. The US cohort includes a significant number of technology professionals.
However, any change in buying behaviour among US-based NRIs is unlikely to materially alter overall housing sales across India, according to ANAROCK.
Will property prices in India be affected?
The PERM suspension is unlikely to have a significant immediate impact on property prices, Puri said.
“Prices are driven by land and input costs and the move to premium launches, not NRI inflows,” he said.
According to ANAROCK Research, average residential prices across the seven largest cities rose 7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. Any additional demand from returning professionals is likely to be too modest and gradual to significantly alter this trend, Puri said.
Remittance inflows could rise in the near term
Colliers India offered a more optimistic view of the potential impact on residential real estate, while noting that the consequences would become clearer as the US policy situation evolves.
“Prima facie, repatriation and remittance inflows into India could increase in the near term. The highly skilled tech talent pool could relocate back to India or invest in the country’s residential market, considering ongoing uncertainties in the US. Consequently, luxury housing, particularly in southern cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Kochi and other Tier II cities, could receive a fillip. Sales enquiries in these segments and markets are likely to increase in the next few quarters,” said Vimal Nadar, national director and head of research at Colliers India.
The suspension could prompt some technology professionals to reassess their long-term plans in the US, potentially supporting demand for residential property in India. However, the extent of any increase in remittances or home purchases will depend on how the restrictions evolve and whether professionals choose to relocate or continue working in the US.
Sandeep Reddy, co-founder of Zapkey, said the uncertainty around permanent residency could encourage some professionals to direct their savings towards property in India.
“When the pathway to a Green Card freezes, dollar savings naturally repatriate into tangible home purchases back home,” Reddy said.
The US government is suspending eight major IT companies from a programme linked to Green Cards for skilled foreign workers. The move was announced by senior US officials on Oct 8. The suspension targets a key employer-sponsorship mechanism, called the Permanent Labor Certification or PERM, which is used by major technology companies and outsourcing firms.
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