Xi's warplanes vanish from Taiwan skies? US scrambles to decode Beijing's new game plan

Chinese military aircraft activity around Taiwan has dropped to its lowest level in three years, according to a South China Morning Post report, fueling debate over whether Beijing is easing pressure or simply changing tactics. PLA jet sorties reportedly fell sharply in the first half of 2026, while Chinese Coast Guard patrols around Taiwan reached new highs. Analysts cited diplomacy, military restructuring, maintenance, budget pressures and shifting strategic priorities as possible reasons for the decline. Is this a genuine de-escalation across the Taiwan Strait—or a quieter strategy before the next crisis?