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Ukraine raises Russia attack fears: All you need to know

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview that Russia is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February. He said such an attack would likely involve air strikes.

Published on: Nov 22, 2021, 07:16:11 IST
By , Hindustan Times, New Delhi
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The United States, NATO and Ukrainian officials have been making statements for nearly two weeks, referring to what they say are unusual Russian troop movements in the proximity of Ukraine.

A satellite image shows armoured units and support equipment in Russian town of Yelnya, close to the border of Belarus. (Twitter/Maxar Technologies)
A satellite image shows armoured units and support equipment in Russian town of Yelnya, close to the border of Belarus. (Twitter/Maxar Technologies)

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence told the Military Times outlet this weekend that Russia is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February.

Here's a look at all you need to know about the latest crisis:

What's happening, and where?

After an uptick in violence in early 2021, Russia has moved swaths of troops on Ukraine's borders in the spring, raising fears of a major escalation. NATO said there has been an "unusual concentration" of Russian forces along the border.

According to estimates, 100,000 Russian troops have massed near Ukraine's border near Donets. A satellite image, released by Maxar Technologies, shows hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles near the Ukrainian border.

What could this mean?

Experts have said the build-up could be a prelude to another Russian invasion. However, the officials of the United States have declined to say whether they believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is aiming to again seize Ukrainian land.

"We don't know what President Putin's intentions are. But we do know what's happened in the past... We know the playbook of trying to cite some illusory provocation from Ukraine or any other country and using that as an excuse for what Russia plans to do all along," said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Some experts, meanwhile, say that it may also be sabre-rattling to prevent Ukraine from joining the NATO.

What Russia contends

Russia has dismissed the American suggestions and complained about what it says is increasing activity in the region by NATO members. Kremlin has slammed the US for driving "artificially derived hysteria".

"(Our) Western partners are escalating the situation by supplying Kiev with lethal modern weapons and conducting provocative manoeuvres in the Black Sea... Western bombers are flying 20 km from our border," President Putin said in a statement.

Seven years of conflict and counting

Ukraine's army has been locked in a simmering conflict with pro-Russian separatists in two breakaway regions bordering Russia since November 2014, after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Fourteen thousand people have died in the battle between Kiev and pro-Russia rebels in the east of the country. Out of these, 3,393 deaths were of civilians, according to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights's October 2021 report.

Meanwhile, there is another border issue for Ukraine. Thousands of migrants who are trying to cross from Belarus into the EU for months, have also become a problem for Ukraine. Kiev has also warned migrants massed in Belarun not to cross onto its territory, saying they will be pushed back with any means necessary, including firearms.

As a result, Ukraine may be forced to divert its troops to secure its northern borders as well to forestall any attempted influx of migrants.

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