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Why is OpenAI's annualized revenue $20 billion below earlier estimates?
OpenAI's annualized revenue is reportedly $50B, $20B below an earlier estimate, after investors miscalculated its revenue growth against Anthropic.
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OpenAI’s annualized revenue is reportedly around $50 billion as of September. This is about $20 billion lower than the earlier estimate of $70 billion.
The earlier $70 billion figure was based on an incorrect comparison with rival Anthropic. Investors reportedly arrived at the $70 billion estimate after comparing how OpenAI and Anthropic calculate their annualized revenue. The Financial Times said the earlier estimate came from investors’ calculations.
What is OpenAI’s annualized revenue?
Annualized revenue is an estimate of how much money a company could make in a full year based on its current revenue. In simple terms, a company takes the revenue it is making during a certain period and projects that figure over 12 months.
The problem was that OpenAI and Anthropic do not calculate annualized revenue in exactly the same way. Because of this difference, investors’ comparison between the two companies led to an incorrect estimate for OpenAI.
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How did investors reach $70 billion?
Investors initially estimated that OpenAI’s sales had reached about $40 billion in August. They were then given information that OpenAI’s revenue had grown by about 70%. Investors added the 70% growth figure to their earlier $40 billion estimate. This calculation led them to believe that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was around $70 billion, according to Yahoo Finance.
That $70 billion figure was therefore not OpenAI’s actual reported annualized revenue. It was an estimate made by investors based on their calculation of OpenAI’s growth.
OpenAI revenue now at $50 billion
The latest figure of about $50 billion is significantly lower than the earlier $70 billion estimate. The difference is roughly $20 billion, which explains the sharp change in expectations around OpenAI’s revenue.
The new $50 billion figure would also put OpenAI below Anthropic. Anthropic is now estimated to have around $65 billion in annualized sales, according to Yahoo Finance.
OpenAI vs Anthropic
This is notable because OpenAI and Anthropic are major rivals in the AI industry. Both companies are competing heavily for enterprise customers, or businesses that pay to use AI products.
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Both companies are also developing AI agents for businesses. These products are designed to carry out tasks for workers rather than simply answering questions like traditional chatbots.
OpenAI’s new AI products
OpenAI recently introduced new Dots AI agents aimed at enterprise workers. The company unveiled the products at its annual developers conference last week.
OpenAI also unveiled its latest AI model, GPT-6.1 Sol, at the developers conference. The new model is part of the company’s wider push to expand its AI products, according to Yahoo Finance.
OpenAI IPO plans
The revenue gap comes at an important time for OpenAI because the company is expected to move toward an IPO. OpenAI is widely expected to begin its initial public offering sometime in early 2027, according to the information provided. Anthropic could also enter the public markets soon. The company is rumored to be considering going public before Thanksgiving, with its S-1 investor prospectus expected to be filed soon.
The different revenue estimates matter because investors are closely watching both companies ahead of possible stock-market listings. Revenue growth is one of the key numbers investors will look at when valuing AI companies, according to Yahoo Finance.
The main reason for OpenAI’s $20 billion revenue gap is therefore the earlier calculation, not a sudden $20 billion drop in sales. Investors had estimated OpenAI’s annualized revenue at around $70 billion, but the latest reported figure is about $50 billion.
The change also shows why comparing AI companies’ revenue figures can be difficult. OpenAI and Anthropic use different methods to calculate annualized revenue, so simply comparing the numbers can produce misleading results.
