Tale of two rebellions: How Shinde, Pawar exits were plotted on to ‘punish’ the leadership

While Eknath Shinde, then the urban development minister with Shiv Sena, exited the party with 40 supporters in June last year, on Sunday Ajit Pawar led a similar rebellion supported by nine of his party colleagues, and was sworn in as the deputy chief minister in the Eknath Shinde-led government

MUMBAI: The twin splits in Maharashtra’s foremost political parties – Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – in a little over a year were executed using similar blueprints. While Eknath Shinde, then the urban development minister with Shiv Sena, exited the party with 40 supporters in June last year, on Sunday Ajit Pawar led a similar rebellion supported by nine of his party colleagues, and was sworn in as the deputy chief minister in the Eknath Shinde-led government.

Mumbai, India - July 2, 2023: NCP Leader Ajit Pawar interacts with Dy CM Devendra Fadnavis, while oath taking ceremony at Raj Bhavan in Mumbai, India, on Sunday, July 2, 2023. (Photo by Anshuman Poyrekar/ Hindustan Times) (Hindustan Times)

The backroom ploys were orchestrated in secrecy by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – its intent took shape after its first failed attempt to create fissures in the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in 2019. Informally termed ‘operation lotus’ union home minister Amit Shah steered its course. No one got wind of what was happening on ground last year, as Shinde and the central leadership convinced the MLAs to align with him. Only Devendra Fadnavis was privy to the secret moves.

The central leadership’s latest move -- ‘operation NCP’ – was also monitored by Shah, who held closed-door meetings with not only Ajit Pawar, but also Shinde and Fadnavis. According to an NCP leader, it was handled with such stealth that even the vigilant Sharad Pawar did not know about it. “He would have otherwise tried to stop the party MLAs from signing the letter during the meeting convened by Ajit Pawar on Sunday morning,” he said.

Ajit Pawar met Shah last week, when he was in the Capital to attend the wedding of his party MLA Ashok Pawar’s daughter. “That’s when Shah summoned Shinde and Fadnavis, and informed both about the plan. Shinde was reportedly unhappy but he was convinced that it was necessary for the survival of the government,” said a BJP leader.

A senior BJP leader requesting anonymity threw light on the early beginnings of these designs in 2019, when NCP chief Sharad Pawar formed the opposition coalition, MVA, “to keep BJP out of power”. Uddhav Thackeray joined in his efforts. The top leadership then planned to “punish” both leaders and render them powerless.

Ajit’s rebellion mirrored Shinde’s – form a group of majority MLAs, declare support to the ruling central government and claim to the original party. While Shinde succeeded in it, one has to wait and watch if Ajit will be able to win the name of NCP, a party formed by his uncle in 1999. Ajit’s claim that NCP is his party will have to be substantiated by numbers – at least 36 MLAs -- to avoid action under anti-defection law.

“Ajit began mobilising MLAs in April-May. Unlike in 2019, several senior MLAs such as Chhagan Bhujbal and Dilip Walse-Patil, as well as senior leaders such as Praful Patel stood by him. Pawar’s resignation drama turned out to be a setback in winning over MLAs. He has not declared how many have signed their letter of support this time though his aides insist it is close to 40 out of 53 in the party,” said a senior NCP leader.

Party insiders said earlier, BJP had to ensure that Shinde’s rebellion come a full circle, because of its failed attempt to form a government with Ajit Pawar in 2019. “The central leadership not only ensured that Shinde had a sizable number with him, but also managed the split by over two-third of the members. This gave the rebellion firm legal ground, even though the Sena cadre was not fully with him,” a BJP minister said.

Commenting on the flow of events, Mumbai-based political analyst Prakash Akolkar said, “More than who orchestrated the splits and who benefitted from them, the betrayal of the voters and their mandate is more worrisome. The voters are upset today with every party as they have betrayed their trust. They want fresh elections in the state. While Shinde’s rebellion was the consequence of BJP’s revenge politics, the second one was engineered after BJP realised that the Shinde faction had failed to perform to its expectations.”