Chhattisgarh: Congress to be tested in tribal areas as BJP tries to bridge gap

In 2018, Congress made an unprecedented comeback in the state after 15 years of BJP rule and won 67 out of the total 90 seats

The Congress swept the assembly polls in Chhattisgarh in 2018 winning 71 seats in the 90-member assembly after 15 years of BJP rule. Since then, chief minister Bhupesh Baghel has consolidated Congress’s position by promoting regional identity.

Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel. (File photo)

An election victory in Chhattisgarh in upcoming assembly polls, to be held on November 7 and 17, will be significant for the Congress as it will boost its political image. Electoral success in the state would provide the party a pole position in the INDIA alliance as it readies itself to be the principal challenger to the BJP at the Centre for the 2024 national polls.

While Congress currently has 71 MLAs, 13 are with BJP , 3 with the JCC (Janata Congress Chhattisgrah) and two with the Bahujan Samaj Party ( BSP); the Vaishali Nagar seat of Durg district is vacant as the legislator died two months ago.

In 2018, Congress made an unprecedented comeback in the state after 15 years of BJP rule and won 67 out of the total 90 seats. (The tally increased after the party won bypolls.) Bhupesh Baghel became the first OBC (Other Backward Classes) chief minister of the state wherethe community constitutesmore than 40% of the total population.

The main reasons for Congress’ victory five years ago were anti-incumbency, rural distress and the seeming discontent of the BJP workers with the senior leadership.

At present, the ruling Congress presently has all seats in tribal-dominated Surguja and Bastar regions. In the last five years, Baghel, experts said, strategically promoted sub-nationalism in the state and also created a narrative that the BJP in its 15 –year-rule had sidelined Chhattisgarhi people.

Experts believe that Baghel has consolidated Congress’ position by strengthening the “Chhattisgariyavaad” -- by promoting regional festivals, sports and art and culture of the state.

Baghel, for example, directed officials two years ago to install statues of the ‘Chhattisgarh Mahtari’ (mother in Chhattisgarhi language) in all districts and ensure her portraits were displayed prominently at all government programmes.

As a part of an outreach programme, Baghel hosts functions to celebrate regional festivals including ‘Teeja Pora’ and ‘Govardhan puja’. His government also organises a tribal dance fest and the “Adivasi Parab Samman Nidhi” to honour the tribal community..

The BJP’s focus, on the other hand, has been on corruption: It has continuously attacked the Congress government, levelling corruption charges; several raids by the Enforcement Directorate have followed those allegations. Some of the alleged scams include financial irregularities in coal and liquor industries beside the “Mahadev” app scam.

Despite the party’s outreach prigrammes, experts said the Congress appears electorally weak in comparison to the 2018 elections in the northern and southern regions especially in the tribal areas of the state..

“(The)Congress is likely to lose seats in all four regions ( Surguja, Bilaspur, Bastar and Durg) in comparison to what we got in the 2018 elections. The first reason is that a large number of first-time MLAs have not performed well, which has resulted in anti-incumbency in these regions. Some castes which voted for Congress in 2018, are inclined towards BJP (this time) like Sahus who comprise around 12% of the voters voted to Congress in 2018 with the hope that Sahu leader Tamradhwaj Sahu will be the chief minister. But now since it is almost clear that Baghel will be chief minister if Congress wins, Sahus have moved towards BJP,” said a Congress leader, who asked not to be identified.

As far as the BJP is concerned, the party had failed to launch an aggressive attack on the Congress in the last five years. It was only in recent months that the party managed to pitch corruption as an issue but questions remain on how effective the anti-corruption campaign will be in the assembly poll.

Also, the BJP district units failed to counter Congress’ narrative against the BJP-led Centre at the local level, which might also impact election results in many seats.

But the BJP has one advantage this time -- RSS and its members are expected to work for the party on the ground, a BJP functionary said.

In 2018, Congress bagged 68 seats and polled 42.8% votes, 10% more than the BJP. According to poll observers, BJP faces a tough challenge ahead to bridge this huge margin and cross the majority mark of 46 seats.