Monday musings: Fatal flirt with Covid-19 will bring back lockdown

That the tally of Covid positive patients crossed the previous peak in Pune within 45 days of a surge was noticed, is indication enough a second wave of Covid-19 infections is here and likely to stay for some time

That the tally of Covid positive patients crossed the previous peak in Pune within 45 days of a surge was noticed, is indication enough a second wave of Covid-19 infections is here and likely to stay for some time.

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The blaring of ambulance sirens, similar to August-September last year, is just the reminder of the same.

During the first wave, it took 202 days – starting from March 9, 2020, to September 16, 2020, - for the number of cases to reach its peak.

During the second wave, the graph of Covid-positive cases began moving upward from early February, crossing the previous peak of 5,048 infections in 24 hours, on September 16 last year, with 5,098 cases on March 21.

The district has been reporting close to 5,000 cases for the past few days with thee positivity rate hovering above 20 per cent. The district has once again earned a distinction of reporting the highest number of cases across India, with Pune alone accounting for 10 per cent of the country’s daily case load.

Within the district, most cases are from Pune city with a population of around 50 lakh, followed by Pimpri-Chinchwad and rural parts.

Between March 1 and March 20, the number of cases in these parts has risen by over 400%.

The question many are asking is, why has Pune not been able to stop the spread of the virus despite measures in place?

It’s been more than a month Pune is put under restrictions such as night curfew, closure of schools and colleges, capping of crowds inside restaurants and bars, and prohibiting social and political gatherings.

Yet, Pune’s positivity rate is refusing to come down, let alone return to the mid-January level of 4.5 per cent. Positivity rate is the total number of cases that test positive for Covid-19 against the total tests done.

The state’s positivity rate crossed 24% in September and October 2020, when the epidemic was at its peak in Maharashtra.

With people still crowding, and super spreaders not being tested or being stopped from coming in contact with the public, the second wave is likely to be worse than the first.

The Pune rural administration is testing super spreaders, though this is inadequate as the area is large and there’s a shortage of manpower.

Pune city’s administration, therefore, immediately needs to follow the Brihan Mumbai municipal corporation’s initiative of random testing without citizens’ consent at crowded places like malls, railway stations, bus depots, khau gallis, markets, tourist places, and government offices.

If a citizen refuses to get tested, they’d be booked under the Epidemic Act.

However, testing people on a mass scale may not be enough as the infection has already spread and people are unwilling to shun stepping outside, that too without adhering to Covid-appropriate behaviour.

There’s visible complacency among most, over how Pune beat the first wave as they forget the peak had wreaked havoc with critical patients dying without beds and ambulances.

The last option then is to curb people from gathering in public places.

A lockdown, as chief minister Uddhav Thackeray has repeatedly said, comes as a last resort to flatten the curve, which at this time is refusing to be tamed.

However, there is collateral damage as a lockdown will halt economic activity, the result of which will be harsher for everyone.

Earlier this month, the government had imposed a lockdown in places like Amravati and Yavatmal, where the tally had substantially risen, though the administration managed to contain the march of Covid after a strict lockdown of two weeks.

Nagpur, Maharashtra’s other big city, has been through a week of complete lockdown.

For Pune, it’s an option worth exploring.

At the same time, vaccinations must be open for all without delay.

Currently, there are 230 centres vaccinating 5,000-plus people every day. However, this is not enough for a district with population of over one crore. The administration has already mooted a proposal to the centre for inoculation of everyone in the district.

For the city, where Covid vaccines are being produced on a mass level, and being consumed by the rest of India, the cry for increased doses is an irony.