Getting the maths wrong in Bihar

Bihar could hold some real surprises if present trends are anything to go by. In a reversal of fortunes, Lalu Prasad seems to be gaining ground while Nitish Kumar is battling to hold his own.

Bihar could hold some real surprises if present trends are anything to go by. When it comes to bouncing back into the limelight, RJD leader Lalu Prasad is a hard act to beat. When he was convicted in the fodder scam last year, many were quick to write his political obituary. He lost two consecutive state elections and had little presence at the Centre; it was uncertain who would run his party and his core base of Yadavs seemed to be veering towards the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi. But as he strides to the stage, in rally after rally in Bihar, the old Lalu is back. Confident, deploying his native rustic sense of humour, appealing to and scolding his base to fall in line and vote in large numbers to defeat the ‘fascist’ Modi, Mr Prasad has emerged as the principal challenger to the BJP in the state and appears to have relegated his arch rival, chief minister Nitish Kumar, to the third spot.

Bihar is crucial to the BJP’s aim of getting over 200 seats on its own in the Lok Sabha. After a good run in the first few phases, the party has had to struggle in seats that went to polls on April 24 and 30, in the Seemanchal and Mithilanchal regions in the North. This is because Mr Prasad’s old ‘M-Y’, Muslims and Yadavs, social coalition is backing RJD candidates. The BJP is riding on the upper-caste consolidation, and has been able to make inroads among the extreme backward castes by using Mr Modi’s origins. It may still emerge as the largest party in the state, but Mr Prasad’s rise has rattled party bosses in Delhi and Ahmedabad. Reports now suggest that Mr Modi will step up his campaign even further in the state. But while the party’s national platform is appealing to many, the challenge is in managing local factors — the resentment against incumbent MPs, the role of caste, the contradictions among key district-level leaders and social groups.

In this Modi-Lalu battle, the man who seems to have lost out most is Mr Kumar. When he broke off from the NDA, Mr Kumar calculated that Muslims would consolidate behind him. This appears to have been an error in judgement. Minorities say they are grateful to the CM for his policies, and may well return to him in the assembly elections. But they seem to have invested their lot with the RJD for two reasons — Mr Prasad has a more loyal core base, and thus, may be in a better position to defeat the BJP. And he is in alliance with the Congress, which still represents for many Muslims the key national alternative to the BJP. The failure to stitch up an alliance with the Congress was Mr Kumar’s second miscalculation. The outcome of the Lok Sabha elections could well have an impact on the fortunes of the state government. Reduced to a minority, dependent on the Congress and independent MLAs, a poor performance may well lead to either the chief minister’s resignation or the downfall of his government on the floor of the assembly and early polls. Not a very heartening thought for Mr Kumar as May 16 draws ever nearer.