Three charts which capture Shibu Soren’s legacy | Number Theory

How is one to make sense of Soren’s long political career and the legacy he leaves behind? Here are three charts which answer this question

Shibu Soren, the founder of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Jharkand’s political patriarch passed away after a prolonged illness on Monday. Soren was a veteran politician and had a long political career, holding offices of chief minister, Union cabinet minister and an elected MP and MLA multiple times. The party founded by him has won Jharkhand elections in both 2019 and 2024. How is one to make sense of Soren’s long political career and the legacy he leaves behind? Here are three charts which answer this question.

Shibu Soren at Parliament House in New Delhi in 2011. He died on Monday, August 4, 2025.

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  The rise of the party

  Shibu Soren founded the JMM in 1973 and it contested its first assembly election in 1980 in what was then undivided Bihar. An analysis of JMM’s electoral performance in assembly constituencies (ACs) which constitute present day Jharkhand, shows that it has received a fresh momentum in the past decade, with its vote share and seat share reaching a new high. What is even more important in the JMM’s recent rise is the fact that its success has come in both Scheduled Tribe (ST) and non-ST reserve ACs even as the JMM has been contesting fewer ACs and giving more to its allies. In the 2024 assembly elections, its vote share and contested vote share in ST reserved ACs were 38.84% and 51.9% respectively, the highest ever for JMM. Its headline vote share was 23.4%, which is also the highest vote share JMM has polled so far in the assembly elections. See Chart 1: JMM seat share, vote share and contested vote share
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  The rise of the ST identity

  Outside of India’s north-eastern states, in most of which scheduled tribes (STs) are in a majority, tribals were a marginalized force in politics for long. The backlash against this marginalization, both political and economic, is what triggered the movement for separate states of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh from Bihar and Madhya Pradesh which were officially created along with Uttarakhand in 2000. While STs are not a majority in either Jharkhand or Chhattisgarh – their population share according to 2011 census is 26.1% and 31% respectively –13 out of the 14 chief ministers who have held that office in Jharkhand have been STs accounting for 78% of the time in office since the creation of the state. This number is just 2 out of 6 chief ministers and 19.14% of time in office in Chhattisgarh. The BJP which won Jharkhand in 2014 and decided to make a non-ST the chief minister has paid a big price among ST voters as can be seen its abysmal performance in ST reserved ACs in the 2019 and 2024 assembly elections. Today, three states, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and even Odisha (it has 23% ST share in population) have ST chief ministers outside north-east India, the highest this number has ever been in history and the country also has its first ever ST president. The rise of the ST identity in Indian politics is something Shibu Soren will always get credit for. See Chart 2:
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  But equality is still a work in progress

  This is what will be the most challenging task for Shibu Soren’s political project and his heir apparent Hemant Soren despite the political success which the latter and the JMM enjoy today. The JMM’s political power has done very little to ease the material deprivation facing Jharkhand and its ST population. It is still one of the poorest states in the country in terms of monthly per capita spending . And even within Jharkhand, STs spend much less than what non-STs do. Can the JMM, which is politically much stronger than it was when Shibu Soren was active in politics, address this challenge of material deprivation of the state, especially its tribal population? This is what will decide Shibu Soren’s political legacy in the ultimate analysis. See Chart 3: