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100% chance of El Nino lasting till Feb next year, India may see warmer winter
WMO said El Nino will likely peak towards year-end, with rainfall and temperature disruptions expected to continue well into 2027.
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El Nino has firmly established itself and will intensify into a “very strong” event over the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday, with a near 100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027 — raising the risk of floods, drought and extreme heat across large parts of the world. For India, this may translate to a milder winter with reduced rains for Rabi crops, experts said.
“Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Nino will persist through to February 2027,” the agency said, adding that this was the first time a WMO update on the phenomenon had been “so unequivocal”, reflecting strong agreement across its forecasting network.
Also read: How El Nino is choking the Panama Canal
Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Nino is expected to strengthen further and peak towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027, the update said.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific — the region at the heart of El Niño — are already well above average and continuing to rise. The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in that stretch of ocean, has strengthened from an average of +1.5°C above normal during May-July 2026 and +2°C in July to between +2.2°C and +2.6°C in late July to mid-August, indicating continued intensification.
The temperature deviation beneath the surface is worse. WMO said subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas were more than 8°C above average during July and early August. Together, the surface and subsurface conditions provide “strong support for continued El Niño conditions and the potential for further strengthening” over the coming months.
Also read: Below normal rain likely in September after warmest August since 1901: IMD
India faces risk of warmer winter, weaker rains
Experts said a strong El Niño is a serious concern for India. “It can alter rainfall distribution and raise temperatures. Its immediate impact on the withdrawing southwest monsoon may be limited, but it could influence the northeast monsoon and increase the possibility of a warmer-than-normal winter,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at Skymet. “If El Niño persists into early 2027, India may face an enhanced risk of an unusually warm pre-monsoon season and heatwaves. However, El Niño alone does not determine India’s weather; the Indian Ocean Dipole, snow cover, local sea temperatures and other atmospheric factors will also shape the eventual impact.”
Anjal Prakash, an IPCC author and professor of public policy at FLAME University, called WMO’s warning a red flag for India. “With August already 16% rain-deficient and September forecast below-normal, the event threatens kharif yields, water security and rural incomes, while pushing temperatures to record highs. For policymakers, this is also a macro-economic and food-security risk. We need immediate drought-proofing in vulnerable districts, flexible crop advisories, and pre-positioned relief,” he said.
Also read: Biggest El Nino in ‘over a century’ to dial up global heat, India braces for double crop hit
Global temperatures, rainfall patterns set for major shifts
For September to November 2026, WMO’s multi-model forecasts point to an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns showing what the agency described as “a pronounced and classic atmospheric response” to the strong Pacific El Niño.
A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to develop, reaching a September-October-November seasonal mean value of 0.9°C. The equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warm, with SSTs in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic staying above normal. These conditions, the update noted, may reinforce, weaken or alter typical El Niño impacts in different regions.
Also read: As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos
Guterres calls for urgent climate action
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño was “being supersized before our eyes”. He added: “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event demanded “exceptional preparation and response”. “Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she said, adding that WMO was working with UN and humanitarian partners to provide climate intelligence for agriculture, health, energy and water resources.
El Nino is natural, but impacts amplified by warming
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon — a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months, with peak intensity between November and February. WMO underlined that the phenomenon itself is not caused by climate change, even as its impacts play out on a warming planet.
Also read: Global temperature rise set to cross 1.5°C threshold by end of decade: UN report
The warning comes days after a glacial collapse and flash flood in Nepal left 1,127 people dead and thousands missing, underscoring the fragility of mountain systems in a warming climate. A day earlier, on Wednesday, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said global temperature rise is likely to cross the 1.5°C threshold by the end of this decade, pushing climate risks — including intensified extreme weather — to increasingly dangerous heights.
