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As climate crisis takes hold, 11 states record a hotter summer
Large parts of India experienced extreme heat this summer
Large parts of India turned into climate hotspots this summer, a new report by US based Climate Central says.
Using a Climate Shift Index (CSI) that helps identify whether climate change shifted the odds of daily temperatures in a certain region, Climate Central found “very strong fingerprints of climate change”, of CSI level 3 or higher for at least half of the June-August 2023 period in several parts of India. It found similar trends in north Africa; the Gulf of Guinea coastline; parts of central Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa; the Arabian Peninsula; the Mediterranean Basin; and the southern tier of the United States.
At least half of all June-August days were a CSI level 3 or higher (which means climate change made the higher temperatures at least thrice as likely) in 11 Indian states and Union Territories (Kerala, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar, Meghalaya, Goa, Karnataka, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Nagaland, and Tamil Nadu). Three of these, Kerala, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar, experienced at least 60 days (about 2 months) at CSI level 3 or higher.
Further 11 regions also experienced average temperatures that were 1 degree C or more above the long-term (1991-2020) average, the analysis released on Thursday said. These 11 states include Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Sikkim, Telangana, Tripura and West Bengal.
Friederike Otto, a member of World Weather Attribution who addressed a press conference on the analysis said: “The closer you come to tropics, anomalies are much smaller. Closer to equator, anomalies are not telling you that much but the impact is huge. In India this summer it was humid heat which has health implications.”
The June-August 2023 season was the warmest on record globally — by a large margin. During this period, approximately 7.95 billion people–98% of the entire human population–experienced temperatures that were made at least two times more likely by climate crisis, the report said.
This analysis included 202 countries and territories. Nearly half (48%) of the world’s population experienced at least 30 days between June and August with a Climate Shift Index (CSI) level 3 or higher.
Countries with the lowest historical emissions experienced three to four times more June-August days with CSI level 3 or higher than G20 countries, -the world’s largest economies.
However, states and regions within several G20 countries suffered, including the 11 regions in India.
Residents of the United Nations’ Least Developed countries (47 days) and Small Island Developing States (65 days) were exposed to level 3 CSI or above on the index.
“Virtually no one on Earth escaped the influence of global warming during the past three months. In every country we could analyse, including the southern hemisphere where this is the coolest time of year, we saw temperatures that would be difficult–and in some cases nearly impossible–without human-caused climate change. Carbon pollution is clearly responsible for this season’s record-setting heat,” Andrew Pershing, Climate Central’s vice president for science said in a statement.
When asked if the extremes this year are mainly linked to ongoing El Nino conditions, Pershing said: “Yes, it’s an El Nino year. But it’s the warmest El Nino year which needs to be noted.”
El Nino has a strong influence on the southwest monsoon in India. El Nino years are characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.
The influence of climate change for this analysis was assessed using a peer-reviewed model- and observation-driven methodology to determine the likelihood of local, daily temperatures around the world with and without current levels of carbon pollution.
The earth just had its hottest three months on record, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Wednesday. Global sea surface temperatures are at unprecedented highs for the third consecutive month and Antarctic sea ice extent remains is at a record low for the time of year.
It was the hottest August on record and the second hottest ever month after July 2023. August as a whole is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the pr-eindustrial average for 1850-1900, according to the C3S monthly climate bulletin. The Paris Agreement’s benchmark of 1.5 degrees warming over pre-industrial levels appears closer than ever before.
