Karnataka elections: What the results mean for BJP, Congress and JD(S) leaders
The Karnataka elections 2018 results reinforces the primacy of some leaders, and it diminishes the political stature of certain others.
The Karnataka election has direct implications for the fortunes of top national and state leaders. It reinforces the primacy of some, and it diminishes the political stature of certain others. Here is how the outcome affects them:
1. Narendra Modi: The Karnataka outcome has once again proved that Prime Minister Modi remains India’s most formidable mass politician. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may not have won a majority, but the PM showed he can turn an election single-handedly. By increasing the number of his rallies from 15 to 21, by taking on the Congress on the corruption plank, by projecting the BJP as a party of the poor and Dalits, and one which stands for unity as opposed to the Congress’s divide-and-rule politics, Modi neutralised what the Congress had thought would be its advantages. This puts Modi in pole position for 2019 and reverses the perception of a slide in BJP’s fortunes.
2. Amit Shah: If the results reinforce Modi’s primacy as a national leader, they, yet again, confirm that BJP president Amit Shah is the foremost election organiser in the country. From December to May, Shah reinforced the party’s organisational muscle, reconciled internal rifts, ensured smart ticket distribution, addressed rallies, did road shows, and managed local social coalitions. Within the party, this means that Shah will have a completely free hand now in both the next set of state elections in 2018 and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. While the process of government formation remains fluid, Shah may have opened the gates of the south to the party.
3. Rahul Gandhi: After Rahul Gandhi took over last December as party president, the Congress faced a setback in three North-eastern states. But the party said all its resources and energy had been invested in Karnataka. The electoral loss represents a setback to the new Congress president. If, with a formidable local leader, a strong organisation, and the marshalling of all its resources, the party could not pull off a win, Gandhi should be deeply worried about Congress prospects in 2019. But he showed tactical sharpness and displayed quick decision-making skills in offering support to the Janata Dal (Secular). Whether they are able to retain power in an alliance remains an open question, though.
4. Siddaramaiah: The Congress CM could not reverse the three-decade-old trend in state politics in which an incumbent has not been re-elected. Even though his performance was seen to have improved over the past year, he (and his party) paid the price for the accumulated misgovernance of the first four years. Siddaramaiah lost in one constituency, and won the other only narrowly. There was also, quite clearly, a deep anti-incumbency sentiment in the state, which most observers had failed to sense. Siddaramiah had said that this would be his last election. It could be curtains for him.
5. B S Yeddyuruppa: The BJP brought back the leader who had first helped it win the state in 2008 as its chief ministerial candidate. For BS Yeddyuruppa, it also made an exception of its rule that no party politician above 75 years of age would hold a ministerial position. Yeddyuruppa was perhaps the primary reason why the Congress’ gambit of giving the status of a religious minority to the Lingayats did not work; the community could that see one of their own would become CM and consolidated behind him. He could still become the BJP’s only southern CM, and will be expected to play a key role in winning a majority of the Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka for the party in 2019.
6. H D Deve Gowda/ H D Kumaraswamy: This was a battle of survival for the Janata Dal (Secular), and the party did exceedingly well in its bastion of Old Mysore. The father-son due of HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy had maintained that the JD (S) would not be a kingmaker but the king. With the Congress offering to support Kumaraswamy for the CM’s job, if the Governor invites the Congress-JD(S) alliance to form government, this could well turn out to be the case. The outcome makes Deve Gowda an important figure in Delhi and a potential player in a potential non-BJP federal front.
