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Monsoon likely to cover most parts of North West India by July 3: IMD
Rainfall activity is likely to be near normal to above normal over most parts of the country, except Western Himalayan Region and West Rajasthan.
Monsoon is expected to pick up over northwest India and cover most parts of the region between June 27 and July 3, according to the India Meteorological Department’s extended range forecast.
Currently El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions--the transition between the warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases of ENSO is prevailing, according to IMD. La Nina conditions are expected to develop around August, IMD has said in its June ENSO forecast.
“Under the favourable monsoon conditions, rainfall activity is likely to be near normal to above normal over most parts of the country, except Western Himalayan Region and West Rajasthan, where it is likely to be below normal. Southwest Monsoon likely to advance over remaining parts of Central India and most parts of remaining parts of northwest India during the week,” IMD has said in its forecast for the week of June 27 to July 3.
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After a hiatus of nearly nine days since June 11, monsoon progressed marginally on Thursday into some more parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Northwest Bay of Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and some parts of Bihar. On Saturday, the northern limit of monsoon continued to pass through Navsari, Jalgaon, Mandla, Pendra Road, Jharsuguda, Balasore, Haldia, Pakur, Sahibganj and Raxaul.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of North Arabian Sea, Gujarat, remaining parts of Maharashtra, some more parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and some parts of East Uttar Pradesh during next 3-4 days, IMD said on Saturday.
Several parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Bihar and West Bengal have been reeling under extreme heat since early June.
Also Read | Delhi rain: Has monsoon arrived early in Capital, or a temporary relief?
By June 20, monsoon should have covered most parts of Bihar, central India, West Bengal. The normal date for monsoon to arrive over Delhi is June 27.
There has been a 17% rain deficiency since June 1 with 61% rain deficiency over northwest India; 7% over east and northeast India; 28% over central India and 10% excess over South Peninsula. But 12 out 36 subdivisions under IMD still remain in “large deficient” and 12 more are in “deficient” category. Large deficient means there is a 60% to 90% rain deficiency while deficient indicates there is a 20% to 59% rain deficiency.
A trough at mean sea level is running off south Maharashtra-north Kerala coasts and lower-level winds are likely to strengthen along the west coast during next 3 days. A cyclonic circulation lies over interior Odisha and adjoining Chhattisgarh in lower & middle tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation is lying over northeast and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal in lower & middle tropospheric levels. Under their influence, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning is likely over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra & Marathwada, Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep; scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during next five days.
“Currently el nino southern oscillation neutral conditions are observed over the equatorial Pacific. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the equatorial western and central Pacific Ocean, and below-average over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) forecast indicates that the ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue with strong possibility of transition to La Niña conditions around August-October 2024 season,” IMD said in its June forecast.
It added that the latest MMCFS forecast indicates enhanced probability for neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions to continue. At the same time, the possibility for the emergence of positive IOD conditions during the monsoon season has reduced significantly. Up to last month, many global models including MMCFS were predicting the development of positive IOD conditions during the monsoon season.
The term El Nino refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. El Nino represents the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle while La Nina is just the opposite. La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3 to 5 years or so. These phenomena are a part of natural climate variability. But, on top of these, ongoing climate change also has an impact on rainfall and temperatures globally.
In India, an El Nino is associated with harsher summer and weaker monsoon. La Nina, meanwhile, is associated with strong monsoon and above average rains and colder winters.
Heatwave conditions prevailed in isolated pockets of southwest Uttar Pradesh on Friday. Maximum temperatures were in the range of 40-42 degree C in some parts of West Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh; in isolated pockets of Haryana-Delhi and Gujarat and Maximum temperatures departures were below normal by 2-4 degree C over some parts of Northwest India.
On Friday, the highest maximum temperature of 44.6 degree C was reported at Orai (West Uttar Pradesh) over the country. Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls occurred at isolated places over Konkan; Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Goa, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, East Rajasthan; heavy rainfall at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Kerala, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoarm, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Karnataka and Telangana.
