US pitches maize for India’s E85, SAF ethanol push

The US grain industry argued that corn should be judged on its life cycle carbon emissions rather than simply as imported genetically modified grain.

The US grain industry is making a fresh push to get American maize into India’s expanding ethanol economy, this time arguing that corn should be judged on its life cycle carbon emissions rather than simply as imported genetically modified grain, five people familiar with the discussions told HT.

People familiar with the discussions said the US side is exploring several routes into the Indian market, including higher ethanol blends, sustainable aviation fuel and cooking ethanol. (Hindustan Times)

The pitch was made at a full day US-India biofuels summit in New Delhi on September 22, where the US Grains & BioProducts Council and US-India Strategic Partnership Forum brought together industry and policy stakeholders to discuss higher ethanol blending, sustainable aviation fuel and new uses for ethanol.

A dedicated session at the summit was titled “Lifecycle Assessment of Maize to Ethanol – India & US Case Studies”. The agenda also included discussions on on-road blending in the US and India, ethanol-based cooking, sustainable marine fuel, ethanol in consumer products and its impact on rural economies.

People familiar with the discussions said the US side is exploring several routes into the Indian market, including higher ethanol blends, sustainable aviation fuel and cooking ethanol.

One person familiar with the discussions said the broad pitch was to continue using Indian feedstock for the existing E20 programme, while examining whether US maize could be used for higher blends such as E85, particularly for flex-fuel vehicles.

The argument is that India should compare the carbon intensity of different feedstocks — the greenhouse-gas emissions associated with producing and using a fuel — rather than reject imported maize solely because it is US-origin or genetically modified.

The LCA pitch

The life cycle argument is significant because India and the US currently approach ethanol differently.

The US system has increasingly placed emphasis on the carbon-intensity value of fuels, while India’s ethanol programme has largely been driven by administered procurement prices, feedstock availability and blending requirements, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

An industry representative familiar with the matter said the US Grains & BioProducts Council has commissioned the Indian Institute of Petroleum (IIP) to undertake a life cycle assessment (LCA) of maize-based ethanol. The study is still being finalised and has not yet been released publicly.

The assessment is expected to compare the emissions associated with different feedstocks used to produce ethanol.

Another person familiar with the discussions said preliminary work on Indian feedstocks had found maize to have a relatively low carbon-intensity value, but cautioned that the US and Indian maize cannot be compared until the full study is released.

The US side is therefore seeking to make carbon intensity part of the conversation around future ethanol policy in India.

To be sure, this does not necessarily mean India will agree to import US maize. India’s agricultural policy, according to several government statements, remains protective of domestic farmers, and the government has repeatedly ruled out compromising on maize and other sensitive farm commodities in trade discussions.

Beyond E20

The timing of the pitch is important.

India has achieved its 20% ethanol-blending target ahead of the original 2030 deadline, but the government has said that any increase in nationwide blending beyond E20 will be considered only after further scientific and technical studies. E85, however, has already been introduced for flex-fuel vehicles and is not the same as raising the nationwide petrol-blending mandate.

That creates a potential opening for the US industry.

Rather than seeking immediate access to India’s existing E20 market, the US grain industry appears to be looking at the feedstock requirement that could emerge if India develops a much larger market for E85 and other higher ethanol blends.

The third person who HT spoke to said one proposal discussed was effectively to use Indian feedstock for the existing 20% blend and consider US corn for higher blends as the market develops.

The distinction matters because India has so far maintained that fuel ethanol for its blending programme is sourced from domestic producers. In August, the commerce ministry explicitly said there had been no concession or commitment to import US ethanol for fuel blending.

Importing maize as a feedstock for processing in India would be a different proposition from importing finished ethanol, but it would still raise questions around farm protection, food and feed demand and India’s restrictions on genetically modified agricultural material.

Those questions are politically sensitive because farmers are a large and influential electoral constituency in India. The scale of that sensitivity was demonstrated by the year-long farm agitation of 2020-21, after which Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the withdrawal of the three contentious farm laws in November 2021, and Parliament repealed them on November 29, 2021.

The issue has surfaced again this year. Farmer organisations have repeatedly protested against the proposed India-US trade deal, arguing that greater access for American agricultural products could hurt domestic farmers.

The government, for its part, has repeatedly said agriculture is a red line. Agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said in February that there would be “no compromise” on farmers’ interests and specifically said the door was closed to imports of wheat, rice, maize and dairy products.

India’s import rules also require regulatory approvals for genetically modified (GM) material, while the government has maintained a case-by-case approach to GM crops.

But automakers could be an unlikely constituency

The US pitch could, however, find interest among automobile manufacturers that have invested in flex-fuel technology but are struggling to create a mass market for it.

India launched its first flex-fuel passenger vehicle in June. The government has also laid out a plan to expand E85 dispensing, with an initial roll-out in Delhi-NCR and other major corridors and a much larger network planned thereafter.

But sales of flex-fuel vehicles have remained weak, and the petroleum ministry has asked automakers to provide a roadmap for launching such vehicles as it seeks to build demand.

The problem for manufacturers is that a consumer has little reason to buy a flex-fuel vehicle unless the higher ethanol blend is made widely available, cheaper and conveniently accessible.

The auto industry has therefore been pushing for cheaper E85 and additional policy support. In fact, automakers have time and again sought lower prices for high-ethanol fuels and tax benefits to encourage consumer adoption. E85 was introduced in Delhi at ₹82.12 a litre and in Mumbai at ₹91.18 a litre.

People familiar with industry calculations say imported US corn-based ethanol could potentially lower the cost of E85 to around ₹60-65 a litre, which would give automakers a much stronger argument for expanding flex-fuel vehicles.

SAF may offer another route

The US pitch is not limited to road transport, another person told HT.

According to this person, the September discussions said US companies are also looking at investments in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facilities in India, particularly through alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) technology, which converts alcohol such as ethanol into aviation fuel. “SAF may be another way for the US to enter India in a big way despite some outrage as most common people do not associate SAF with ethanol. Moreover, it causes no harm to the general public,” one of the persons quoted above said.

India already has a substantial ethanol-distillery base. The challenge is connecting that capacity with ATJ technology, certification and a long-term demand framework.

This industry representative said US expertise could be useful in technology, infrastructure and certification, areas where India is still building capabilities. Certification is particularly important because airlines will require recognised sustainability certification before they can use the fuel in commercial aviation.

Currently, the industry is looking for a demand trajectory extending beyond 2030, rather than a short-term mandate, to justify investment in ATJ facilities. The US could potentially participate through technology, investment and certification expertise, while Indian distilleries provide the ethanol base.

The US grain industry is not looking to enter India immediately but is working our on a longer plan as it sees India eventually needing substantially more ethanol than its domestic feedstock base can comfortably provide, which can make US maize a potential source.