In Andhra Pradesh, Pawan Kalyan may upend the cart for Naidu, Jagan Reddy
Lok Sabha elections 2019: The 2019 general elections are poised to witness Chandrababu Naidu, Jaganmohan Reddy and Pawan Kalyan as main influencers.
Andhra Pradesh with 175 assembly and 25 Lok Sabha constituencies is poised to go to polls on April 11 this year, second time after bifurcation of Telangana in 2014.
The Lok Sabha elections will be held in 7 phases starting April 11. Counting of votes will take place on May 23.
As Andhra Pradesh is historically home to bipolar politics, it witnessed one-to-one fight between the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party until the state division.
In the election held in the run up to the division, YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s Yuvajana Sramika Rytu Congress (YSRC) has replaced the Congress as a major power player against Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party.
The Congress went into oblivion after it ruled the undivided state for two consecustive terms from 2004 to 2014 as a consequence of its role in dividing the state against the sentiment of Seemandhra people. The grand old party failed to an open account in the first assembly of the bifurcated state.
In 2019, Jana Sena floated by actor Pawan Kalyan came into picture as a third force after its founder broke ties with TDP. Pawan, representing numerically strong Kapu community with a considerable fan following aligned with the TDP and the BJP and worked for their victory in 2014 elections.
Later, the actor staked his claim for the CM post by seeking to forge himself as a third alternative to Chandrababu and Jaganmohan Reddy.
With this, the 2019 general elections are poised to witness Chandrababu Naidu, Jaganmohan Reddy and Pawan Kalyan as main influencers. Although Pawan is in the fray, there will be a keen contest between Naidu’s TDP and Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSRC, says political anlyst K. Nageswar.
Chandrababu scaped through the election in 2014 with swing votes garnered by Pawan Kalyan from his community and fans. The difference of vote share between TDP and YSRC then was only 1.78 per cent.
Emergence of Pawan Kalyan as an independent force is a matter of worry for the TDP as it is likely to suffer a dent in the Kapu voters predominantly present in East and West Godavari districts with 36 Assembly and three Lok Sabha seats.
Still, Naidu is at his best wooing Kapus by striving to keep his promise of 5 per cent quota and creating a Kapu corporation for the welfare of the community. “Pawan’s influence is growing in coastal districts mostly populated by Kapus. More the popularity for Pawan more the loss for Naidu”, analyses Nageswar. The phenomenon is bound to come as a blessing in disguise for Jagan Reddy, he pointed out.
Welfare schemes such as doubling of old age pensions, Pasupu-Kunkuma offering Rs 10,000 cash benefit to each of 94 lakh self help group women and Rytu Rakshana scheme for welfare of farmers are expected to influence the election in favour of the ruling TDP.
Jagan’s YSRC is building up anti-incumbency by exposing various omissions and commissions of the TDP government in the last five years. It also offered navaratnas-- a basket of nine welfare programmes--, beides invoking the `welfare raj’ of Jagan’s father and Congress former Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy during 2004-09 to counter the rival party.
The sibling clash between Telangana and Andhra over sharing of river waters, distribution of assets and regional sentiment stoked by denial of speical category status by the NDA regime may also influence the election to a large extent.
In his endeavour to extend a “return gift” to his Andhra counterpart Naidu for leading a grand alliance against him in 2018 december state elections, Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao found an ally in Jaganmohan Reddy. Rao’s son and Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) working president KT Rama Rao even met Jaganmohan Reddy at the latter’s residence in Hyderabad in the second week of January to take forward the KCR-Jagan bonhomie. Naidu is quick to build a narrative dubbing both KCR and Jagan as enemies of people in Andhra.
Andhra people still consider KCR as the man responsible for throwing them out of the undivided state without a capital of their own.
The first assembly after the 2014 elections was constituted with 107 members representing the TDP-BJP combine, 66 from the YSRC and two independents.