Election results in neighbouring states will impact Maharashtra

If the BJP retains power in both the states, it will give a boost to the party in the state and set the tone for its campaign for 2019 Lok Sabha elections

The results of civic polls held in Dhule and Ahmednagar in north Maharashtra turned out to be good news for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its partner Shiv Sena. While the BJP single-handedly wrested control of the Dhule civic body from the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine, the Sena emerged as the largest party in the Ahmednagar civic body. It will need the BJP’s help to retain power there. The results are also an eye-opener for the Congress-NCP. The two parties are targeting north Maharashtra as one of the areas to reduce the number of seats won by the BJP and the Sena in the 2014 elections.

The Congress will get a shot in the arm if the party wins more states on Tuesday. (HT File)

Still, it will be Tuesday’s results of assembly elections in five states that all the political parties are awaiting anxiously.

Three of the five states that went to the polls — Madhya Pradesh (MP), Chhattisgarh and Telangana — are Maharashtra’s neighbouring states. As such, the result of the elections there could have some impact on the state, which was why there was tension in both the ruling as well as opposition camps on Monday.

Fingers crossed in the state BJP camp

BJP leaders in Maharashtra are keeping their fingers crossed considering two of the three neighbouring states, MP and Chhattisgarh, are ruled by their party. If the BJP retains power in both the states, it will give a boost to the party in Maharashtra and set the tone for its campaign for 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It will once again prove the ‘invincibility’ of the BJP’s massive election machinery.

However, losing these states, especially MP, will create a new headache for the party here.

First, the morale in the opposition Congress-NCP camp will get a boost. Second, BJP’s ally Shiv Sena will get more aggressive. Of late the Sena has toned down its aggression a bit. A recent public function even saw chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray praising each other.

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For the past few weeks, leaders from both parties have begun to feel that the groundwork is being laid for a BJP-Sena alliance for the upcoming Lok Sabha and assembly elections. This could get spoiled if the BJP fares badly in the assembly polls. The Sena may again get more aggressive and things could become difficult to handle, according to BJP insiders.

Waiting anxiously

Anxiety levels are higher in the Congress camp. The party leaders in Maharashtra are hopeful of victory not just in Rajasthan but in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, too. This will give them a much-needed launch pad to start their campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Maharashtra is one of the states where the BJP scored well in 2014, with the BJP-led coalition winning 42 out of 48 seats in the state. Now, as the Congress looks to regain ground lost to the BJP, it wants to improve its tally in Maharashtra significantly.

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The Congress will get a shot in the arm if the party wins more states on Tuesday. It would also make ally NCP and smaller parties to stick to the Congress. On the other hand, if the BJP manages to retain the two neighbouring states, things won’t be easy for the Congress. Its plan of putting together a coalition of opposition parties to avoid split in its votes and defeat the BJP may hit a roadblock.

Connection with Vidarbha

Significantly, all three neighbouring states that held assembly elections share their borders with the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra. The region is crucial for the BJP for its 2019 election plans. In 2014, the party did well here.

While its coalition won all seats in Vidarbha in the Lok Sabha polls, it won about two-third seats in the region in the assembly elections. The culture in Vidarbha is similar to that in MP or Chhattisgarh. The outcome of the elections in these states will have an impact on the region.

So which side gets a head-start for the battle of 2019? Results to be declared on Tuesday could hold an answer to the same.

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