Reading the tea leaves before the UP elections

Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav are young in the political context. Their well-wishers consider both of them long-term racehorses. For UP, that’s good news

A few kilometres from the din of demonstrations in New Delhi lie the borders of Uttar Pradesh. The state’s voters will be the first ones to pronounce their verdict on the intense intellectual struggle waged on the streets of the national capital.

Yogi Adityanath will complete his tenth year as chief minister (CM) of UP in March 2027. He enjoys a unique image due to his uncompromising working style. As the CM, he has always been at the top of his game (PTI)

While Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa will also go to the polls, why is only UP in the news? It’s because the way to power in Delhi passes through UP. It’s not for nothing that Narendra Modi, born in Gujarat, chose UP as his karmabhoomi. The state has given rise to prime ministers of the nation.

Yogi Adityanath will complete his tenth year as chief minister (CM) of UP in March 2027. He enjoys a unique image due to his uncompromising working style. As the CM, he has always been at the top of his game. Today, UP has five international airports and a vast metro rail network. It is leading in implementing all the welfare schemes initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There are no corruption charges against Adityanath. There’s no popular dissent against him.

However, a long tenure does create some electoral challenges.

Allegations of high-handedness are rife against Yogi’s officers and bureaucrats. More than 50 BJP MLAs and ministers are facing serious allegations. As a result, the saffron party may be forced to replace a large number of its sitting MLAs. It may lead to resentment, sabotage, desertion and public dissent. Switching sides has already begun. The ruling party will need to address its internal contradictions

It’s clear that the BJP has power, organisation, resources and leadership. Along with Adityanath, the PM’s political heft too helps the party. But the BJP’s internal dissensions can be electorally fatal. This is the reason party president Nitin Nabin, during his two-day July visit to Lucknow, brought all the top leaders of the state together for a photo-op and shared it on social media. The CM is also aware of the challenges. He’s rolling out government doles and public-pleasing welfare schemes.

Now let’s talk about Akhilesh Yadav. He had to fight on various fronts simultaneously when he was the CM between 2012 and 2017. His father Mulayam Singh Yadav bestowed power and prestige upon him. But some of the leaders and bureaucrats who had been close to his father kept bypassing him. But Akhilesh didn’t give up. Along with the Agra-Lucknow expressway, he initiated many important projects, including establishing a women’s helpline and modernising the state police’s transport. When no one knew about Gen Z, the Samajwadi Party (SP) government provided school-going children free laptops.

His 2017 defeat was largely attributed to the public anger against his family caucus. However, he’s now freed himself of the burden. This is also why, in the 2024 general elections, the SP emerged as the second-largest party, winning 37 seats. He has brought some changes in his strategy. He knows his voters are belligerent and, at times, inadvertently gets into controversies. To offset this problem, he’s conducting meetings with different castes to maintain a fair balance. He’s also focusing relentlessly on weaning away Brahmins, Gurjars, as well as extremely backward castes and Dalits from the BJP. He’s reaching out to all those castes, classes, or groups which are even slightly annoyed with the ruling dispensation.

Participation in New Delhi’s demonstrations enhanced his political stature. His deepening relations with Rahul Gandhi can help him thresh out a favourable electoral arrangement as both the SP and the Congress need each other.

While talking about UP politics, we should also remain vigilant about another important aspect: regional parties play an important role. Their leaders are aware of this and try to leverage it. Jayant Chaudhary, Omprakash Rajbhar, and Anupriya Patel are prime examples. In the last elections, these parties cornered 6.5% of the vote in 32 assembly seats. This time, too, they would jostle for more tickets within the alliance and fight hard to win.

No discussion about UP is complete without Mayawati. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo and former UP CM today doesn’t have a single assembly or Lok Sabha seat. Will the coming assembly elections be another nail in the BSP’s coffin? It would be a hasty conclusion, as in the 2022 assembly elections she secured 12.88% of the votes. Similarly, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BSP secured 1.5 lakh votes in 20 Lok Sabha seats. In that election, less than 50,000 votes decided winners and losers in 30 seats. The question now is whether in this election Mayawati will remain a party spoiler or secure an effective role for herself.

The two claimants for the CM seat in Lucknow, Adityanath and Akhilesh, are young in the political context. Their well-wishers consider both of them long-term racehorses. For Uttar Pradesh, that’s good news.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal