Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal have spoken, Harry Kane has the numbers; but Ballon d’Or still has no clear favourite

The usual humility has taken a bit of a back seat, with Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal both openly backing themselves for the award.

Ballon d’Or conversations have well and truly started with just over a month to go before football’s biggest individual award is handed out. The nominees are out, and players have already started making their case for why they should win. That has been one of the more interesting parts of this year’s race, with the campaigning becoming much more direct even before the ceremony.

Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal are backing themselves, Harry Kane has the numbers. (AP, Reuteres and AFP Images)

The usual humility has taken a bit of a back seat, with Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal both openly backing themselves for the award. But unlike much of the last decade, there is no clear-cut favourite this time. We had a two-way or three-way battle for much of that period, with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo dominating the conversation and going head-to-head for the trophy. This year, the race feels much more open, with several players having a case and the debate only getting louder.

Real Madrid star Mbappe made his own case for the Ballon d’Or earlier this month, making it clear that he believes his numbers and performances leave little doubt about his credentials

“There was no player better than me. We were talking about achievements. To score that many goals in the major competitions, where all the great players are, and of course at the World Cup, the biggest event, to become the competition’s all-time leading scorer - throughout my holidays, that was all people talked to me about,” he said in an interview with France Football.

Looking at his season, Mbappe did produce some sensational performances in front of goal for both Real Madrid and France. He scored 25 goals in La Liga and another 15 in the Champions League before producing one of the defining statistical achievements of his career at the World Cup, where he scored 10 goals. There is no denying that Mbappe was a force in front of goal, but his impact in the biggest moments was not matched by team success. Real Madrid faded in the second half of the La Liga title race, while their Champions League campaign ended in the quarter-finals. France, meanwhile, finished fourth at the World Cup despite Mbappe's 10 goals. For all the goals he scored, the bigger question remains whether his individual performances translated into enough impact when it mattered most for his teams.

Yamal finished second in the Ballon d’Or voting last year, but he has now made it clear that he believes this could be his year to go one step further. With a La Liga title and FIFA World Cup triumph to his name, Yamal feels his trophy haul gives him a strong case for the prestigious individual award. The Barcelona star openly backed himself while also naming Kylian Mbappe as the other leading contender.

“I honestly believe there are two (Kylian Mbappe and him) of us who are the best in the world, and this year I’d deserve it because of what I’ve won,” Lamine said in an interview clip shared by Spanish streaming platform Movistar.

However, Yamal, who is quite flamboyant on the pitch, had a strong season in La Liga, scoring 16 goals and providing 11 assists in 28 appearances during the 2025–26 season. He scored once and provided one assist at the World Cup, which does weaken his case. The Spaniard arrived at the tournament after recovering from an injury, and that made it difficult for him to make a smooth transition into the biggest footballing event. The 18-year-old is certainly someone who looks primed to win a Ballon d’Or in the future, but realistically, he isn’t the clear favourite this year.

Number-wise, Harry Kane has perhaps the strongest case for the Ballon d’Or, having scored 73 goals last season. He continued to show his killer instinct in front of goal in both Bayern Munich and England colours. Many believe he has done enough to stake his claim for the prestigious award, but when you look at Bayern and England’s campaigns, there are a few factors that weaken his case. Michael Olise was named Bundesliga Player of the Month despite Kane finishing as the league’s top scorer, while for England, Jude Bellingham was arguably their standout performer at the World Cup, raising questions over Kane’s standing in the Ballon d’Or race.

Lionel Messi in the race too

Lionel Messi, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Rodri and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are some of the other names in the race, but their cases are arguably as weak or even weaker than the three discussed above. Messi had an extraordinary World Cup, leading Argentina to the final, but playing outside Europe weakened his case. Had he won the World Cup, he would have automatically become the favourite to win the Ballon d’Or for a ninth time. Rodri was named Player of the Tournament at the World Cup, but he missed a large part of the season for Manchester City due to injury, and it took him some time to get back to his best after returning. Dembele and Kvaratskhelia won the Champions League with PSG, but the Frenchman’s impact at the World Cup was lower than others'. While Kvaratskhelia’s Georgia did not qualify for the tournament. Olise has a case similar to Dembele, having been one of Bayern’s best players, while Mbappe was France’s standout performer at the World Cup.

It all makes the Ballon d’Or race exciting, but at the same time, the uncertainty over the winner continues to grow. Mbappe and Yamal have both made strong cases for themselves, while Kane has the numbers to back his claim, but there still isn’t a clear favourite heading into the final stretch.