E-Paper
End of Covid-19 pandemic might be near in UK, says epidemiologist Neil Ferguson
The epidemiologist who influenced global response with his initial Covid-19 modelling said that the reduced risk of hospitalisations and deaths due to vaccines has “fundamentally changed” the equation.
Amid a sharp decline in daily coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases, UK’s top epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has said that the end of the pandemic in Britain could be just months away. Ferguson, who influenced the governments’ response around the world with his initial Covid-19 modelling, told the BBC that though the UK is not “completely out of the woods”, the reduced risk of hospitalisations and deaths due to vaccines has “fundamentally changed” the equation.
"The effect of vaccines has been huge in reducing the risk of hospitalisation and death and I think, I'm positive that by late September, October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic," Ferguson said.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to remove almost all restrictions from July 19 was severely criticised by health experts as the country was witnessing a worrying surge driven by the highly contagious Delta variant. Despite criticism, the UK government followed up on the plan but continued to emphasise the importance of social distancing measures and wearing face masks.
While the impact of the removal of Covid restrictions is yet to be seen, Johnson is betting on the high rates of vaccination to boost one of Europe's largest economies. The daily new Covid-19 cases have fallen continuously for the last six days, with 24,950 new cases reported on Monday.
The recent spike in Covid-19 cases didn’t lead to a vast increase in deaths even as hospitalisation from the virus has been on a rise. In a letter to Johnson, cabinet ministers and the NHS England chief executive Sir Simon Stevens, the NHS Providers group said the hospitals are as stretched now as they were at the height of the second wave in January.
Ferguson said by October, Britain will “still have Covid with us, we will still have people dying from Covid, but we’ll have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us,” adding that there is going to be “remaining uncertainty” until autumn.
